Cowen and FF come out swinging but the damage has already been done

WHO next leads Fianna Fáil is no longer as important as it was once, but it remains very interesting nonetheless.

Brian Cowen’s successor may not get a chance to lead the country as Taoiseach for five years — or worse then might have to serve as Tánaiste in a coalition government led by another party as the only back into power. What makes things even more interesting is that the responsibility may fall upon him or her to ensure that Fianna Fáil does not remain out of power for a generation or, at a push, withers and dies.

The most pressing immediate issue for putative successors is when he or she would want to take the “prize” — and that, no matter how bad the situation is how it would be regarded by those who are imbued in the Fianna Fáil tradition.

To take it before the general election might help mitigate the massive losses that the opinion polls suggest are looming and leave the party with a stronger base for the subsequent general election. To wait until afterwards runs the risk of being left with little or nothing upon which to build.

But waiting until then means less blame can be attributed to the new leader for the election disaster. To take possession and not stem the losses would leave the new leader vulnerable to ejection soon after should opinion poll results not go his or her way.

Is it implausible that a badly wounded Fianna Fáil would act that way against a new boss? It’s not really when you consider how many leaders the Conservatives in Britain went through while Tony Blair held sway with Labour.

Of course even if a sizeable section of the party’s existing TDs — or a possible new leader — wanted a change of leader prior to the election would they be able to get it? Cowen appears to have gone into election mode, where he is clearly more comfortable. He is taking the fight to the opposition and the public. His old aggressive self was on display in the Dáil last Wednesday and in a series of radio and television interviews. He is fighting for his own political life and — because it is the most important thing to his political DNA — for Fianna Fáil’s future.

Voters might be entitled to ask where and why this fight has been hidden since May 2008, although I suspect the scale of the job as Taoiseach overwhelmed him (as it just might have done to anyone else) and that this was made worse by the realisation that he was dealing with the consequences of his own lazy and incompetent behaviour as Minister for Finance. They might also wonder if this fight was on display in his negotiations with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union because the terms of the deal reached are so onerous that it suggests he rolled over meekly.

With staggering chutzpah, Cowen — and indeed other Fianna Fáil voices who have been heard in recent days — appear set to claim the IMF deal as some kind of victory. Their tactic seems to be to suggest that, against the odds, they have secured the future financing of the country, to keep it afloat while threatened by an international storm. There may be some people who fall for this, especially as Cowen is mixing some humility with demands for acceptance that he always acted honestly and in the best interests of the country.

Rumours of an imminent “heave” from Fianna Fáil TDs fearful of losing their seats have resurfaced in recent days. Previously it has been backbench TDs — noted malcontents among them — who have broached the subject, but without the requisite support to make a formal challenge. The number of those known to want immediate change is still in single digits, something that allowed Cowen to forcefully claim on Wednesday that he continues to enjoy the support of the parliamentary party and that he will lead Fianna Fáil into the election, both defending its record and making promises as to its future performance.

Dermot Ahern was once regarded (by himself anyway) as a future leader but now that he has declared his intention to resign he could perhaps act as catalyst to change. However, if he was going to do that I’d imagine that he would have done so by now, especially when he was so angry at being misled, as he saw it, and therefore left to mislead the public about the true nature of the government’s talks with the IMF and EU. And, according to well-sourced reports, Ahern was even more angry with Brian Lenihan than Cowen over that, suggesting that he would not be interested in acting in a way that would deliver the prize to the Finance Minister.

Lenihan is the bookies’ favourite to take over but is very hard to imagine that he could mount a credible challenge. While Lenihan is articulate in trying to convince that black is white (although not all fall for it) he cannot trade forever on the fact that he only came in to clean up the mess in 2008. He was there for the introduction of the bank guarantee and his subsequent strategy in relation to the banks has unravelled with ugly results. His seemingly boundless optimism has had its uses — especially when contrasted with Cowen’s previous seeming browbeaten look — but it has worn thin when trotted out regularly in the face of mounting disaster. His popularity with the electorate is probably fading; his face on party election posters may not be quite the hindrance to candidates that Cowen’s certainly would be, but it might not be much of a help either.

And here’s the sensitive thing: his health — and the treatment of his cancer — would almost certainly have to be an issue, not just for Fianna Fáil but for the entire electorate. Whatever one thinks of his decisions and their outcomes his bravery in continuing with his job since his diagnosis has been admirable. While it could be argued that being leader of Fianna Fáil in the future is less important than being Minister for Finance now, the potential, slim that it is, that he could be called upon as a future Taoiseach would have to weigh heavily.

So who is left? Mary Hanafin has pitched but her seat in Dun Laoighaire is not safe (although running as party leader might save it). Eamon Ó Cuiv might appeal to traditionalists (and he is much smarter than many people give him credit for, even if he might suffer from urban bias against his accent). Micheál Martin might just have distanced himself sufficiently from his time as Health Minister, but his role in creating the HSE would probably command more air-time in any campaigns than his introduction of the smoking bans. He is probably the most likely choice and his comments on RTÉ’s Frontline last Monday offering support to a new government that implements his party’s four-year plan was significant positioning.

But what difference would he make to the public perception of Fianna Fáil? Martin has been in power since 1997 and people are looking for change. But there are few in the party coming forward as saviours. The polls may be seriously underestimating Fianna Fáil’s support at just 13%, especially as the party will fight viciously between now and election day.

But even if the worst predictions do not come true Fianna Fáil could still be far worse off after the 2011 election than Fine Gael was after 2002. That is some potential political legacy for Cowen to add to the rest of it and for any new leader to handle.

The Last Word with Matt Cooper is broadcast on 100-102 Today FM, Monday to Friday, 4.30pm to 7pm.