Fianna Fáil at 13% - Reinvention or oblivion is FF’s choice

THOUGH the collapse of Fianna Fáil and the plight of the country have many parallels, and though one is a consequence of the other, there is one great difference. This country has a future but it is not at all certain that today’s Fianna Fáil has.

That an organisation once central to the honourable and patriotic ambitions of so many people, so vital to the development of this State, is staring oblivion in the face confirms that Irish people still have principles they put before tribal loyalty.

This week’s Irish Sun opinion poll rating of 13% was numbing for those in the party today, so imagine the consternation it would have caused in the days of Charvet shirts by the dozen, spontaneous after-dinner dig-outs and Bollinger-and-oyster schmoozing in the Galway Races tent.

That so many of today’s Fianna Fáil politicians argue that they have reached this point because they “have taken hard decisions in the national interest” suggests they have not optimised the process of self-appraisal vital to someone recovering from delusion or addiction.

The 13% rating — down 29% since the last election — is the legacy of the contagion sown in the Haughey years and brought to fruition during the Ahern debacle. Until Fianna Fáil accept this, their future remains in jeopardy. Until they accept this, they have no place in the new Ireland we must all work to build.

It is hard not to have some personal sympathy for Taoiseach Brian Cowen but his 8% rating must signal the end of his party’s one-eyed infatuation with the layer of society that has brought us, like a condemned man climbing a scaffold, to the cusp of Tuesday’s day-of-reckoning budget.

If, like the rest of us, they return to the first principles that served them and the country so well for generations they will return to centre stage. If not they will be left muttering among themselves in the wings.

Ironically, if the poll results are reflected in the election, the generation that has the capacity — and most at stake — to rebuild Fianna Fáil may lose out. In so many constituencies the senior, the most embedded deputy is so tainted by the past as to be almost an impediment to the future while the junior deputy, who might more easily embrace a new culture, may lose out.

Fine Gael may be tempted to gloat but they should not. They expect to lead the next government and unless they do so convincingly they could face the same fate in a few short years. And, at this moment, very many questions remain about their ability to face the huge challenges ahead.

Fianna Fáil retains the capacity to reinvent itself but to do this the party must jettison the habits that have destroyed it and this country. If it does not — if this leopard cannot change its spots — some other entity will fill the inevitable void. In those circumstances the country might not be any poorer but Fianna Fáil will have, by its arrogance and denial, consigned itself to history.