Kenny survives - Rebuilding credibility is the challenge

ENDA KENNY’S tenacity won the day yesterday, but whether it is sufficient to win much else remains to be seen. In so many ways, maybe even too many, this is the very worst possible result for Fine Gael.

They have shown great disunity and whether they can, with any real credibility, shake off the consequences of that in time to mount the kind of electoral challenge that was expected, remains to be seen too.

Already the process of trying to woo some of the 11 frontbench rebels, to make themselves available and serve under Mr Kenny again, has begun. This will be especially difficult for Richard Bruton who, despite yesterday’s defeat, remains one of the few politicians whose economic analysis is persistently convincing. He may have to sacrifice considerable personal capital if he is asked to serve under Mr Kenny again, though it is far from certain that this invitation will even be extended.

How Mr Bruton’s supporters react to defeat will define the immediate future for Fine Gael. Unless they can find considerable reserves of humility it is hard to see how the party can capitalise on all that has been achieved in recent years. Some may even follow George Lee’s lead, deciding that change is all but impossible and quit politics. That would be petulant and unfortunate.

The public silence maintained by Fianna Fáil while Fine Gael were digging themselves into this great chasm will not last much longer either.

No matter how reassured he is by yesterday’s vindication, Mr Kenny will find it impossible to avoid or silence the inevitable barbs that he leads a divided and confused party. The point scoring will be merciless and, all of a sudden, Fine Gael have a good reason to hope that an election is not called in the immediate future. Fianna Fáil’s script has been laid out for them and whether they can use it to distract from their appalling record or not will be one of the great running skirmishes of the next election campaign. Fine Gael’s hopes that a sense of proportion will prevail might be in vain.

It may be discomforting for Fine Gael but now they must consider how they will overcome the inevitable focus on the rump of the party that could not support Mr Kenny. If any unity that might be established after this week’s theatrics is no more than a veneer of convenience it will be ruthlessly exploited.

Mr Kenny’s victory may not have been emphatic enough to ensure that he will resign from his position at a time of his choosing, but we may never know. It is hard to decide if the voting figures were kept secret because they were tight, or because revealing them would make the task of healing the inevitable hurt all the more difficult. Of course it also has the benefit, from Mr Kenny’s perspective, of keeping prospective challengers in the dark about the real strength of his support.

Mr Kenny won the day yesterday, but it is hard to dismiss the feeling that Fine Gael will not have to wait too long more before appointing the 11th leader in the party’s history. It is even more difficult to dismiss the idea that the real winners weren’t even at the meeting.