Leaders under fire - It’s time for FG to hold its nerve

AS a cadre of Leinster House foot soldiers is unnerved by withering opinion polls and an election looming on an not-so-distant horizon, Brian Cowen and Enda Kenny’s leaderships are under fire.

One man – Brian Cowen – has to defend failure. He also has to defend unprecedented and dismal ratings for his party. Mr Cowen’s record is not impressive but the next leader of Fianna Fáil will hope they can replace him without having to offer the party, held in contempt like never before, to a vengeful electorate. They will want to begin rebuilding without carrying the burden of having led the party to its Waterloo.

Mr Cowen has often spoken of how strongly he values loyalty and he may put that into practice by enduring the slings and arrows before resigning after an election. Nevertheless, the only thing that seems to be at issue now is the timing of his resignation. Anything else would put Lazarus in the ha’penny place.

However, that prognosis might not materialise if Fine Gael indulges its traditional enthusiasm for implosion and condemns the leader who has rebuilt a party that was almost on speaking terms with oblivion.

Mr Kenny, whose crime seems to be that he stutters through prepared answers and does not have the gusto or bombast needed to drown out critics, has shown that he can organise and rejuvenate an entity in what seemed like terminal decline.

It is hard not to think that if Fine Gael dump Mr Kenny, and as Fergus Finlay points out elsewhere on this page that may be more easily said than done, they will show that they have neither the steel or patience needed for government.

Maybe it is time Fine Gael remembered that though Roosevelt’s sweep and charisma helped win World War II it was the pragmatic and far greyer Harry Truman who built the peace that brought the prosperity we still enjoy today.

Labour, and particularly its leader Eamon Gilmore, might have preferred if they had not reached such heady heights so far ahead of an election. Their new popularity, so very, very long in the realisation, will open them to scrutiny they might have avoided if they were still seen as partners rather than challengers.

Though its ratification may mean that they will get away with not laying their cards on the table about the Croke Park deal, any difficulties in its implementation, and there may be many, will make it impossible for Mr Gilmore to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds on the issue. The same applies to Labour’s position on public sector reform and spending and social welfare expenditure.

Even an outraged electorate would not trust a party intent on keeping its cards so close to its chest. Labour may find that the vagueness that helped it climb the greasy pole is the very thing that will send it careering to the bottom again. Its new-found popularity may force them to be more specific than they might wish. It might also bring the party’s lack of depth and very high age profile into sharper focus.

One thing that has been brought into a far sharper focus is the fact that the electorate wants change far greater than anything our politicians and our political culture is prepared to contemplate.