Unionist MPs may hold the rope for the Tories in a hung parliament

COULD Northern Ireland decide the course of British politics tomorrow, after all?

The bookmakers are predicting a small Tory overall majority, but most pollsters still say a hung parliament is on the cards.

Conservative leader David Cameron sounds increasingly confident of winning outright. Even if he fails, the Daily Telegraph – the Tories’ house journal – wrote on Monday that it understands Cameron is preparing to “go it alone” and form a minority government. The paper quoted a Conservative frontbencher as saying: “We don’t need a formal coalition deal if the unionists are on board for the key pieces of legislation.”

According to the Telegraph, the Tories are satisfied an informal understanding with unionist MPs from the North could secure Cameron safe passage during his key early Commons battles, including getting a first Queen’s Speech (programme for government) and an emergency budget passed.

At what cost to the peace process and the delicately balanced political deal struck in 1998, nationalists wonder? Wouldn’t a closer relationship between London and the North actually help stabilise the local settlement, unionists respond?

But should Cameron be anything up to 20 or 30 seats short of a majority, what allies would he find in the North? 2005 was a watershed election in Northern Ireland with the DUP taking nine seats to the UUP’s one.

The SDLP had already succumbed to the Sinn Féin advance in 2001. In 2010, though, few of the 18 seats are expected to change hands.

Safest of all, of course, notwithstanding questions about his dilatory approach to child abuse in West Belfast, is Gerry Adams. Martin McGuinness and Pat Doherty are almost as invulnerable in Mid Ulster and West Tyrone. Newry and Armagh, meanwhile, has gone from being a unionist seat to Séamus Mallon’s fiefdom to becoming a Sinn Féin stronghold in the course of a generation. This has enabled republicans to focus all their considerable resources on retaining Fermanagh and South Tyrone in the face of a united unionist challenge from Rodney Connor.

Although there is a small nationalist majority in the seat, the humble SDLP vote should hold up well enough to ensure the constituency is represented at Westminster, which it hasn’t been since 2001. Still, Sinn Féin will battle very hard to keep all the border seats green.

SF’s two potential opportunities, on the other hand, look quite remote prospects. If the unionist vote divides more evenly this time between UUP and DUP – and with the SDLP in the constituency moribund – it’s theoretically possible Sinn Féin’s Gerry Kelly could oust DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds in North Belfast.

In South Down, meanwhile, Sinn Féin education minister Catriona Ruane has become enough of a bogeywoman to convince sufficient unionists to lend their votes to the SDLP’s new leader, Margaret Ritchie. Without tactical voting, it’s probably a nationalist dead heat.

Her predecessor, Mark Durkan, will similarly benefit from the votes of unionists from the east bank of the Foyle anxious to keep out former IRA bomber Martina Anderson. He probably won’t need them.

The SDLP should also hold South Belfast now Sinn Féin has withdrawn their candidate to give Alasdair McDonnell a free run for the nationalist vote. But holding on to what they have is the most the SDLP can hope for.

Interestingly, though, Ritchie isn’t closing off her options after the election. The SDLP might be Labour’s sister party but their tactics will be determined by the wider good of the North, she insists.

The DUP, meanwhile, went into this contest with potentially much to lose.

They are outflanked on the political right for the first time and their reputation for straight dealing and plain speaking has been called into question. The party fought the 2005 election on a platform of “no” to a mandatory coalition with Sinn Féin, but have since positively embraced it.

Their leader, Peter Robinson, and his wife Iris, who stood down recently as an MP, have become the butt of jokes for their lavish tastes, dubious friendships and ruthlessness when it came to claiming taxpayers’ money.

But while the DUP has lost a significant chunk of support to the Traditional Unionist Voice, their position has recently stabilised somewhat. Robinson, Dodds, Arlene Foster, Gregory Campbell and Jeffrey Donaldson still make a formidable front row, even if they appear a little battle-scarred.

The seats to watch out for include Robinson’s own East Belfast where allegations of bizarre deals with property developers dog him. Robinson’s good fortune is that his main challenger, former Ireland rugby star Trevor Ringland, has to guard his middle-class Conservative and Unionist base from the predations of hardworking Alliance Party representative, Naomi Long.

The DUP can also expect to be run closer by the reincarnated UUP this time in Lagan Valley, Strangford, Upper Bann and East Londonderry, helped by leakage at the other end to the TUV. If just one of them fell – perhaps Lagan Valley or Upper Bann – it would be a political sensation.

The DUP are still favourites, though, as they are in North Antrim and East Antrim where they should hold off the TUV and UUP challenges convincingly.

In South Antrim, meanwhile, expect a close finish, but Sir Reg Empey, the Ulster Unionist leader, looks well placed to dislodge controversial evangelist-cum-singer, Willie McCrea. Quite a few Catholics will overlook Sir Reg’s Orange sash if there is an opportunity to be rid of a representative who shared a platform with the murderous LVF leader, Billy Wright.

THAT just leaves North Down where Sylvia Hermon will be returned as an independent, having rejected the Ulster Unionist-Tory link-up. She speaks and votes little at Westminster – and when she does, it has frequently been in support of the Labour government – but she has earned an enviable reputation for constituency work in the North’s most naturally Conservative seat. It’s just a pity she hasn’t the courage of her convictions to stand as a Labour or Liberal candidate.

Out of a probable unionist delegation of 11, then, Lady Hermon is the only one likely to try to frustrate a Cameron government.

Any UUP MPs will automatically sit on the Conservative benches, possible even the frontbench. The DUP, conversely, might have their reds, but privately find Cameron’s economic plans the most credible – even if they have enjoyed watching the UUP having to defend his pledge to cut the North’s bloated public sector. They share Cameron’s Euroscepticism as well.

Conversely, post-election, while abstentionism is still apparently non-negotiable, Sinn Féin know their ability to march up to 10 Downing Street and demand an audience would be seriously diminished under a Conservative government. But if that forces Northern nationalism to make a positive case for itself rather than demanding London and Dublin impose from on high, is that altogether a bad thing?