Edinburgh may hold key to the future state of Anglo-Irish relations

IT is said that the more things change, the more they stay the same. In relation to Dáil elections, that is broadly true. In 1957 and 1961, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael between them secured 81% - 82% of the popular vote. Come 2007, an economic transformation and a 30-odd year terrorist campaign later, that had dipped, but only slightly, to 77.5%.

True, when Labour has a had good show, or Fine Gael a particularly bad outing, as in 1992 and 2002 respectively, the share of the vote for the two “civil war” parties has dipped to around 68%. Nevertheless, the basic two-and-a-half party system has remained unchanged since 1951 while parties like Clann na Talmhan, Clann na Poblachta and the PDs have come and gone.

That’s not to say there has been no change whatsoever. Fianna Fáil was forced to break its ‘no coalition’ rule in 1989, for instance, but the FF-FG-Labour 1-2-3 idiom has endured for longer than anyone can remember. If Fine Gael can translate its current opinion poll lead into a real vote advantage, therefore, it will be nothing short of a political earthquake.