Lisbon treaty - Referendum at risk from protest vote

TAOISEACH Brian Cowen returns from Brussels able to breathe a sigh of relief that guarantees about the Lisbon treaty’s impact on Ireland have been secured.

He had a job on his hands going there — not every country could convince 26 neighbours, each with their own interests and concerns, to put those of one small troublesome island first.

But if Mr Cowen allows himself to think the hard work is over, he will be badly mistaken. The treaty in substance has changed little — apart from the concession on retaining a commissioner for every member state — and it is debatable how big a turn-off the potential loss of Charlie McCreevy or his successor really was for the electorate.

What has changed is the clarity now available to the public about how the treaty will or will not affect national policy on neutrality, abortion and taxation.

What must yet change is how the Government goes about the business of presenting the treaty to the public to ensure that clarity is not lost.

Regardless of how strenuously the Government tried to persuade voters to their way of thinking prior to the first ballot last year, the incomprehensible nature of the treaty text, a growing wariness about assurances emanating from the coalition and the often dismissive attitude of ministers to public concerns allowed the vote to be lost in a morass of misinformation, miscommunication and mistrust.

This time around, they have the added complication of a disastrous outing at the local and European elections to contend with. The electorate proved they were willing to use the ballot box to rattle the Government even if they couldn’t deliver a direct hit.

Unless there is a fairly dramatic improvement in the Government’s satisfaction ratings in the coming months, the temptation will be there in October, when the fresh referendum is almost certain to take place, to give them another good shaking.

There is no good reason for that to happen. As far back as last November, an opinion poll revealed a move away from the no vote that caused such ructions the previous June. And early this month a fresh poll showed a complete about-turn, with 54% of voters indicating they would vote yes in a new referendum compared with the 53% who voted no last time. The momentum is already with the Government and it is theirs to lose.

Undoubtedly they will do unpopular things in the coming months — speculation about the end-of-year budget already points to it becoming the harshest ever.

But if whatever bad news must be delivered in the months ahead is imparted in an open, coherent, humble and respectful manner, voters will judge it separately from Lisbon.

Already, however, there are questions about the legal status of the guarantees obtained in Brussels and when a formal protocol will be produced and adopted to ensure their protection.

The job of teasing out those issues won’t wait until autumn. The work must begin now.