A lesson for three embattled leaders: Like Obama, compete and prosper

MONDAY evening and it was off to an amateur production of The Glass Menagerie; strangely appropriate it seemed too in current circumstances.

Set in 1939, Tennessee Williams’s tale of a downwardly mobile Southern family’s struggles in Depression-era St Louis concludes with one of the most memorable soliloquies from the American theatre. It ends: “The world is lit by lightning.” In other words, war is on its way.

The world in 2008 isn’t heading for war — although governments’ attempts to distract their populations from economic woes will make it a more unstable place — but there is a lack of seriousness in political discourse at home, a reluctance to face up to the scale of the economic crisis if we are to avoid a prolonged downturn.

A curious doublethink prevails: people tell pollsters they are prepared intellectually for tough measures to ensure the Irish economy can take advantage of the global upturn predicted for 2010. Just don’t ask anyone to take any of the pain personally: touch my benefit, perk, allowance, payment or tax break and I’ll protest until the Government caves in.

Wanting your cake and eating it is the essence of the human condition, of course. This is where political leadership comes in — or is supposed to. In the past week I have been hopping across these islands, thanks to Ryanair, and it occurs to me there is a certain symmetry in the different jurisdictions. In Dublin, Belfast and London, new leaders are struggling to fill the shoes of illustrious predecessors.

Look at the north. Yet again there is stalemate and no prospect of the Stormont executive meeting any time soon. What looked like a phoney war in the summer between the DUP and Sinn Féin has turned into a grudge match. The longer it goes on, the harder it will be to put the coalition of opposites back together again. Ostensibly, it’s a row about policing but the problem is a deeper one: two parties that crave power but crave scoring sectarian points more.

In London, Gordon Brown has enjoyed a slight fillip this month as the Tories, fearful of appearing to defend the market economy and mired in renewed sleaze allegations, have wobbled. Still, Labour is 10 points down in the polls. Gordon Brown’s lack of charisma is painfully obvious.

And in Dublin, Fianna Fáil is reeling from that historic Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post showing them seven points behind Fine Gael for the first time since nobody knows when — the days of Cumann na nGaedheal, perhaps.

Meanwhile, as happened in London following the abolition of the special 10p income tax rate for low-paid workers, the budget appears to be less a statement than a work in progress, susceptible to change on any given day.

The connection between these three sorry states? A crisis of legitimacy. Ian Paisley was unceremoniously dumped by the party he founded for appearing too chummy with the Shinners. Peter Robinson replaced him by acclamation.

Gordon Brown undermined Tony Blair, the most talented politician of his day, and then threatened metaphorically to snap the legs off anyone who dared to challenge him for the Labour crown.

Brian Cowen, toured round Laois-Offaly like some conquering hero, but no battle was actually fought: again, he just emerged.

It is too early to write off any of these men. Peter Robinson might be sour and unimaginative, but he is the master tactician, the greatest of unionist organisers.

For Labour to have spurned Gordon Brown might have split his party and his record on economic management might see the polls swing back further yet.

Brian Cowen, again, had been the heir apparent and has years of experience to fall back on. He dug Fianna Fáil out of a hole during the last general election campaign and could do so again if he can persuade the electorate that the opposition are mere opportunists.

But the fact remains that the people of the north, of Britain and of the republic all voted for the DUP, Labour and Fianna Fáil, respectively, expecting someone else to be in charge today. That’s not unfair in a parliamentary system; leaders can only stay so long as they have their parties’ confidence. Ian Paisley got mired in an allowances row, Tony Blair couldn’t bring himself to condemn Israel during the Lebanon war, and we all know about Bertie’s difficulties.

The consequence, though, is that neither the first minister nor the British prime minister, nor the Taoiseach, has any popular mandate he can point to. None has even had to go through a party leadership campaign and had to stake out a personal vision or programme.

None can say “I was elected to do this, now let me get on with it”. It’s no wonder then that Peter Robinson finds his backbenchers are digging themselves into hardline positions, that Gordon Brown cannot articulate what policy position motivated his decade-long feud with the Blairites, or that Brian Cowen doesn’t quite know who he can trust beyond his proposer and seconder for the leadership, Brian Lenihan and Mary Coughlan, neither of whose halos is exactly glowing right now. The Taoiseach can’t tell the backwoodsmen they owe their seats to him either.

The contrast between events in these islands and across the Atlantic could hardly be starker. Having fought the most gruelling of nomination battles with Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama entered the race proper against John McCain looking battle-hardened. Yes, a few skeletons fell out of the closet — his murky associates in Chicago, his America-damning pastor — but he came out the stronger for it.

The first-term senator suddenly didn’t seem quite so egotistical, so presumptuous any more. If he could beat the biggest name in the Democratic firmament, surely he was more than able for the reluctant choice of an unenthusiastic Republican party?

TRUE, Obama has had his fair share of luck: during the summer when the US election seemed to be about character, not the economy, he didn’t enjoy much of a poll lead. The political background for the Republicans could scarcely be worse either. And, assuming he wins next week, Obama could yet prove a disappointment in office. Time will tell.

Competition might be an unfashionable concept in these neo-Keynesian days — but it really does drive up standards. Obama has had to fight to get to where he is. He wasn’t anointed; he had to struggle and strive a bit in a way that the current leaders in Dublin, Belfast and London have not.

There’s a lesson to be learned from the States. Conventional wisdom has it that the Greens will stick around in the current coalition so long as their support doesn’t nosedive. It is highly unlikely last Sunday’s opinion poll figures would be replicated in a Dáil election anyway. It seems unlikely then, at this stage, that Brian Cowen will be forced into a general election.

But he shouldn’t necessarily fear one. It might be the making of him. Meantime, Fine Gael and Labour would be wise not to rest on their opinion poll laurels. The chances of the Taoiseach having the courage to seek a mandate for the difficult decisions that the national interest demands are 10/1 against. But a week is a long time in politics.