Ireland ’08: We’ll win the Grand Slam, but we may lose Bertie
Predictions don’t always work out because politics, as we all know, isn’t an exact science. But getting things wrong never bothered a political commentator because he (or she) could always say “it was right when I wrote it”.
So, if you don’t believe my predictions about what’s going to happen in 2008, I’ll draw comfort from the fact that they are correct as I write them. The political ones may start to go wrong tomorrow, but as long as my sporting predictions hold good, I’ll be happy.
Six cabinet ministers and four junior ministers issue a statement announcing that if the tribunals don’t leave Bertie alone, they’re all going to hold breath until they turn blue and then those nasty tribunals will be sorry. This statement is apparently issued in response to a widely reported leak from the Mahon Tribunal. Apparently, two of the tribunal judges and three members of the legal team held a séance over Christmas in which they managed to make direct contact with the late Charles J Haughey. Based on the information he has given them, they have announced the setting up of eight new modules which are scheduled to last until 2022. The media also report the coincidence that all of the legal people involved are due to retire that year. The opposition is apparently reluctant to underwrite the added cost — “over my dead body,” Enda Kenny is reported to have said.
Highlight of the month in sporting terms is Ireland winning their first three matches in the rugby Six Nations, against Italy and Scotland in Croke Park and against France in Paris (these are my predictions, so I can dream, OK?). Meanwhile in politics, the PDs have a further look at their leadership rules. After none of their TDs, senators, county councillors or town councillors declares any interest in the leadership, the PDs relax the rules further. In future, they declare, anyone can be elected, so long as they’re old enough to vote and not already the leader of another party.
Ireland wins its first Grand Slam since 1949 by beating Wales in Croke Park and then, two days before St Patrick’s Day, England in Twickenham. George Hook immediately calls for the dismissal of Eddie O’Sullivan on the grounds that he is unlikely to be able to repeat the feat in 2009. In response to the PDs’ rule change, Michael McDowell issues a statement saying he is considering a comeback. “It is clear my people need me, and I will not be found wanting,” the statement concludes.
The PDs issue a clarifying statement making it clear that as they had said earlier, anyone could be elected leader provided they are neither a current nor a former leader of a political party. McDowell responds by announcing his intention to join Fine Gael. “Over my dead body,” Enda Kenny is quoted as saying. The nation largely ignores the row because over four sensational days Padraig Harrington wins the US Masters in Augusta. Seemingly dead after a double bogey from the left-hand bunkers on the 18th hole, an emotional Harrington goes on to win the title with a birdie at the third extra play-off hole.
The Taoiseach addresses the Joint Houses of Congress in Washington. A packed chamber hears him announce he couldn’t have made peace in Northern Ireland without the help of President Bush. The president later said he was glad to help his good friend Bertie O’Hern in whatever way he could. Buoyed up by his rapturous reception in Washington, the Taoiseach tells correspondents he is thinking of leading Fianna Fáil into the next election. At home, Charlie Bird asks Tánaiste Brian Cowen to comment. “The Taoiseach has my full support,” Cowen replies, through visibly clenched teeth. Meanwhile, Munster win the Heineken Cup in a thrilling replay of their previous visit to the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.
In a startling development, the opinion polls show the Government is likely to lose the EU referendum. The Taoiseach says that, on reflection, he feels it’s nearly time for him to move on and that he has every confidence that his good friend Brian Cowen will do a wonderful job as Taoiseach. The Tánaiste barnstorms the country in the final week of the referendum campaign, and the Government just squeaks through.
Green party leader John Gormley announces that in the interests of reducing Ireland’s carbon footprint further, and as our contribution to end global warming, the Greens are going to drop their life-long opposition to nuclear power. A tender competition is announced to build a nuclear power station in Mayo. “Over my dead body,” announces Enda Kenny.
Deputy Finian McGrath seeks a recall of the Dáil to oppose the Government on the nuclear power issue. Told the Government has no intention of recalling the Dáil until October, he issues a statement saying he would have voted against it if he could have, but since he can’t, he won’t.
Frank Dunlop issues a statement retracting all his previous evidence to the Mahon Tribunal. He claims to have been subjected to psychological torture in secret cells below Dublin Castle by being forced to read his own memoirs over and over again. Judge Mahon indignantly rejects the claim. “Nobody could be that cruel,” he says.
It becomes clear that the Government is taking Dunlop’s claims seriously, although no-one else does. A Dáil motion proposes another tribunal to inquire as a matter of urgency into the activities of the Mahon Tribunal, especially with regard to the possibility that it had used torture to extract evidence damning to the Government. At the same time, rumours circulate that the Mahon Tribunal and its legal team may have to be suspended, on full pay of course, to allow the new tribunal to do its work.
Former minister Ray Burke issues a statement claiming to have been fully vindicated by the Dunlop revelations. Furthermore, he says he has strong evidence for the new tribunal that the late James Gogarty was tortured and drugged by the Flood Tribunal before he alleged giving bribes to him. Burke indicates that in the light of all these developments, he may consider a return to public life.
The Government announces that, following a full investigation of the Dunlop revelations, it has decided to suspend the Mahon Tribunal before it can issue its final report. “Any finding of fact by this undemocratic and secretive body would now be entirely devalued,” a Government spokesman declares. Instead, the new tribunal, to be called the McDowell Tribunal after its chairperson, will begin its work immediately. Asked if the opposition will support these developments, Enda Kenny makes his position clear. “Over my dead body,” he says.
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