We have done little or nothing to prepare for an oil-free future

IN HIS feature on peak oil (June 20), Colin Campbell’s diagnosis was impeccable, but I think his prognosis was too optimistic.

It has been known for a long time that oil is a finite resource so we have had ample time to plan for its end.

But governments are incapable of planning far ahead; they tend to ignore theoretical considerations, reacting to an actual crisis or media hysteria and only looking ahead to the next election.

The fact is our the Government has achieved very little, except to make anodyne sounds to fool the public that it has got things sorted.

Insulation and energy-efficient light bulbs are not a solution. Houses are springing like mushrooms and getting bigger; as much energy is needed to build a house as to heat it over a period of 20 years.

Lighting of roads, car parks, filling stations and floodlighting is proliferating. Improved engine efficiency is seen as the solution to the transport issue. This upsets no one, but it counts for nothing when there are more and more, bigger and bigger cars being driven further and further.

The proposed contribution from biofuels would not even counteract the 7% annual traffic growth. More energy is needed to manufacture and service a car and to build the roads it needs than it will consume in fuel during its life.

Because road vehicles have to carry their energy supply around with them, there is no easy alternative to petrol, diesel or LPG.

Any compulsory restriction on car use, or increasing the cost of motoring in any way, is taboo. Better public transport is of limited benefit if people are still going to use their cars.

Renewable energy — wind, tidal, wave, hydro and solar — could, in theory, have replaced most ofIreland’s non-transport energy requirements and provided power for electric railways and trams to replace road transport, but in the 30 years since the first oil shock we have achieved only 5% of our energy from renewables. No new railways have been built; road-building is continuing a go-go.

The additional infrastructure required cannot be built overnight; it needs to be done over a period of several decades, as redundant infrastructure is phased out.

Although there has been ample warning, the Government has not faced up to the problem of peak oil; in fact it has only made matters worse and fossil fuel consumption continues to increase.

Colin Campbell predicts we will hit peak oil in three years’ time. There is consensus, give or take a couple of years, among all the independent experts.

Despite all the fuss, oil prices are still low — about half the price peak of 30 years ago, allowing for inflation. When the oil price rockets, there will be inflation, recession and unemployment, and this will reduce demand. Using gas to replace oil will help.

There is massive investment in the oil and gas sector which will increase extraction rates, but not reserves. The peak will, I believe, be more of a plateau.

But these factors will only give a few years’ respite and not enough time to do what should have been done long ago. There will be further oil wars and Ireland’s oil supplies may be cut off completely. If that were to happen, our modern way of life would collapse.

Barring a miracle, it is difficult to predict otherwise. Whether we revert to some sort of medieval, hippy, self-sufficient paradise, or a Mad Max apocalyptic nightmare, is anyone’s guess.

Michael Job

Reenascrena

Glengarriff

Co Cork