Undecided voters - All to play for, with 42% still unsure

WITH the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition mired in crisis, today’s Irish Examiner national opinion poll shows crucially that four out of 10 people have not decided which alternative government to vote for in the General Election.

According to the survey by Lansdowne Market Research, 58% of the electorate, including grey voters, know how they will vote — but a staggering 42% of those questioned last Tuesday and Wednesday, especially young voters, had not made up their minds.

With swing voters vital, the sheer scale of “don’t knows” is a sharp reminder that every ballot paper will count as controversy flares over the murky issue of the Taoiseach’s finances in the 1990s.

In a fascinating series of insights into the factors that influence first preferences, the poll found that family voting traditions and local issues supersede both party policies and the personalities of candidates.

Meanwhile, the confusion and uncertainty hanging over the campaign deepened following the PD decision to stay in government despite Tánaiste Michael McDowell’s ire over the Taoiseach’s failure to give him a complete picture of his financial dealings.

There is, he says, a significant difference between the scenario emerging from Mahon Tribunal leaks and what the Taoiseach told him last autumn. Fundamental questions of accountability and standards in public life overshadow the controversy.

Ironically, given their self-appointed role as guardians of the nation’s conscience, there is a whiff of hypocrisy about the PD decision not to walk out of government even though Deputy McDowell believes the coalition arrangement is finished in all but name.

In the dying moments of the outgoing administration, the PDs are trying to have their cake and eat it. Ironically, five years ago Mr McDowell famously climbed a pole, urging voters to support the PDs in order to keep Fianna Fáil in line.

Having straddled the moral fence since then, they have finally balked at biting the bullet, fearing the electorate would see a withdrawal from government as a cynical electioneering ploy.

But with the junior partner in government visibly imploding, the strong likelihood is that the party’s antics will be perceived in that light. What people are asking is why they refused to break with Fianna Fáil throughout the Bertiegate controversy?

By doing so, the PDs would find it impossible to get into bed with Fianna Fáil after the election. In Mr McDowell’s view, it would be a futile gesture to walk away and the party had no intention of doing so.

However, with contradictions and inconsistencies dogging the Taoiseach, Mr McDowell has called for a comprehensive statement before voters go to the polls. He believes the questions hanging over Mr Ahern make it impossible for him to seek a nomination as leader of the next government.

In characteristic fashion, Mr Ahern insists he has no case to answer, that he never received any improper payment from which he gained financially and that he never misled people about his finances.

The irony of all this is that Fianna Fáil has actually gained two points, up from 35% to 37%, in the latest Sunday Business Post poll. With some reason, the opposition parties fear there could be a backlash, as Fianna Fáil bounces back and their fortunes decline. Ominously, this happened last year when the Taoiseach came under attack.

How the Ahern controversy will affect the choice of undecided voters will emerge in future polls. Seemingly, without a smoking gun, most people regard the Taoiseach’s integrity and honesty as beyond question. The Teflon factor survives.