General election - Five years in opposition may suit FF

WHAT promises to be the closest general election contest in years gets under way in earnest today following yesterday’s dissolution of the 29th Dáil by President Mary McAleese.

As Taoiseach Bertie Ahern prepares to go to the country on Thursday, May 24, the campaign has been electrified by dramatic changes in the public mood evidenced in recent poll figures, indicating that a change of government could be on the cards.

With Fine Gael rapidly overtaking Fianna Fáil, the head-to-head confrontation between party leaders Bertie Ahern and Enda Kenny will be crucial. Already, the gloves are off, with Labour accusing the Taoiseach of hijacking the Northern Ireland question for party political gain.

As the battle for the hearts and minds of voters intensifies, the political debate now shifts to the nation’s doorstep where hopeful candidates will press the flesh, kiss babies, and bombard the electorate with manifestos and promises that may never be delivered.

The issues are clear-cut. The economy, and how it will be managed over the next five years, overshadows the campaign. While the economy remains strong, there are signs a downturn is on the way. Indeed, it may suit Fianna Fáil to spend some time on the opposition benches in hope of returning to power after five years in the wilderness.

Never-ending hospital overcrowding, and the ongoing disputes between nurses, consultants and the Government, will prove decisive.

Housing issues, especially the political hot potato of stamp duty, will sway young voters; in education, class sizes and the State’s harsh treatment of autistic children, will be lightning rods. Environmental questions, crime, and transport problems loom large.

Across the land, space is already at a premium on poles festooned with the faces of the candidates jockeying for an edge in the race for 165 vacant seats in the 30th Dáil. The spin doctors are busy hyping up multi-million-euro spending plans.

As Fianna Fáil seeks to make it three in a row, the country’s biggest party has been wrong-footed on stamp duty. Apparently backing PD reforms, the Taoiseach hints that “something” could be done after the election. Meanwhile, the outbreak of auction politics has been damaging, creating uncertainty in the property market.

The key issues of climate change and global warming issues and Ireland’s failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will have a significance on the outcome.

In Galway and other areas where people have to boil water contaminated by bacteria, the raging controversy over water quality will have a strong bearing on how people cast their votes. With the Exchequer coffers awash with cash, the failure of local authorities to provide clean drinking water is a damning indictment.

While party leaders feign indifference towards opinion polls, events such as the allegations likely to emerge at the Mahon tribunal in the coming days, will be crucial.

The latest poll shows Fianna Fáil being overhauled by Fine Gael, Labour more or less static, the PDs recovering slightly but still in trouble, the Greens falling back a little, and Sinn Féin looking set to gain seats.

But whether Fine Gael can regain enough ground lost in the 2002 election debacle to form an alternative government is the burning question. In a significant twist, the Green Party, despite the recent reverse, could emerge as king-makers.

While this Government has undoubtedly made progress on many fronts, on one issue in particular its performance has been disappointing. Elected on a platform of openness and transparency, the Coalition has since emasculated the Freedom of Information Act, blunting a tool which had strengthened the preservation of participative democracy.

Predictably, the old canard of electronic voting has been resurrected. Having witnessed the speed of e-voting in the first round of the French presidential election, an “embarrassed” Taoiseach has described Ireland as “the laughing stock of Europe”.

Despite the Government’s costly misadventure with e-voting, he blames the opposition for blowing the whistle on a system lacking the security of a paper trail to verify its accuracy.

It remains unclear if the Irish phenomenon of the pencil-wielding tallyman will be removed from the endangered species list. With scores of computers languishing in a warehouse, seasoned political observers will be relying on the computing skills of the tallyman to make early predictions, heightening the excitement of the final count, the only opinion poll that really counts.

The outgoing administration will face questions on childcare, road fatalities, pollution, climate change, the Bertie-gate factor, local issues, and, above all, the health crisis.

Essentially, the make-up of the next government will hinge on the outcome of the leadership battle, the perceived competence and credibility of the competing parties, and, above all, how successful they are at convincing a wary public that the economy is in safe hands. With the gap between the alternative coalitions narrowing by the day, it’s game on and all to play for.