Sinn Féin Árd Fheis - Power-sharing the name of the game

WITH a gimlet eye on Wednesday’s election in the North, and the other fixed on the looming General Election in the Republic in May, the transformation of militant republicanism gathered pace as Sinn Féin reiterated over the weekend that ‘‘the war is over’’ and that ‘‘peace must now be built’’.

This message was driven home forcibly at the party’s Árd Fheis in Dublin where motions from diehard elements opposed to policing were defeated.

In keeping with its new image, the party rejected calls not to take its place on the policing board, until power had been devolved from London.

Just a few short weeks ago, that would be unimaginable. As delegates were reminded the peace movement is now ‘‘irreversible”.

But old ways dies hard, it was informative to hear the truth being twisted as the cold-blooded murder of detective garda Jerry McCabe was described as ‘‘an accident’’.

Claims that his killers were being kept in jail in order to stymie Sinn Féin’s political progress are cynical in the extreme.

Power-sharing will be the name of the game for Sinn Féin in the aftermath of both elections. In the North, they are upbeat about the prospect of a breakthrough in the political logjam.

According to the party’s chief negotiator, Martin McGuinness, power-sharing will be on the cards after this week’s executive assembly elections.

Explaining this new sense of confidence, he claims position of DUP leader Ian Paisley on power-sharing has moved from ‘never’ to ‘no’ to ‘may’ and is now ‘possible’ and even a ‘probable yes’.

But it remains to be seen whether Dr Paisley is ready to share power with nationalists the terms of the Good Friday agreement, with all that implies, including all-Ireland institutions.

The political realities are more basic. Under direct rule from London, the cost of essential utilities like domestic water rates have dominated the campaign.

There is a growing realisation on both sides of the divide that power-sharing is the only way to prevent a return of direct rule.

It would be hard to exaggerate the seismic upheaval on the North’s political landscape.

Not long ago, it was inconceivable that a former IRA leader like Martin McGuinness could become deputy first minister in the Assembly. Indeed, with the DUP split, his chance of becoming first minister can’t be ruled out.

With the General Election campaign in the Republic already in full swing, the 60,000 dollar question preoccupying delegates at the Árd Fheis was — what happens if there is a hung Dáil?

While every political party worthy of the name in the Republic rules out getting into bed with Sinn Féin, all bets would be off if they held the balance of power.

While some republicans hold they should have 15 or 20 seats before entering a coalition, the leadership say they are transforming the political landscape.

They insist Sinn Féin is now ready for government and that other parties will come looking for their support.

Any prospect of forming a partnership with the PDs has been firmly ruled out by party president Gerry Adams. For better or for worse, therefore, Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil look most likely to end up as bed fellows.

In this volatile scenario, nothing can be ruled in or out. It’s still all to play.

But given their relatively static position in recent opinion polls, Sinn Féin’s ambitious hopes of substantially boosting the party’s representation in Dáil Eireann seem unrealistic.