The consequences of sizzling summers

WITH temperatures hitting a sizzling 30º Celsius during the recent heat wave, we were given a taste of what summers will be like in Ireland as the 21st century progresses.

As climate change accelerates, experts are telling us most of the country will have drier, warmer summers.

While the heat will, undoubtedly, be welcome and future generations may no longer feel the need to travel abroad to feel the sun on their backs, it won’t be all sunshine, so to speak.

Water shortages could be a problem. We’re being told to start planning for longer-term water storage and better uses of limited supplies.

There will also be implications for farmers. It may no longer be possible to grow typically Irish crops such as the potato, which requires a fair amount of moisture. On the other hand, the “new” climate may suit the growth of crops such as maize and soybean.

Records show that warming in Ireland occurred from the 1910s to the mid-1940s, with 1945 being the warmest year on record here. After that, there was a general cooling until the 1990s, the warmest decade on record in Ireland.

Harsher winters are also recalled, when land was frozen stiff for endless weeks and snow lay on the ground for months. Our winters have, indeed, got milder. Take Birr, Co Offaly, which would have experienced over 50 days of frost per year in the 1960s: it now has less than 40.

On a recent visit to Dublin, EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas spoke of the effects of climate change and the need to take action.

Citing official statistics, he said 2005 was the warmest year recorded since 1860. And the five warmest years have all occurred since 1997.

During the last 100 years, the average surface temperature of the planet increased by more than half-a-degree Celsius worldwide and by almost one degree in Europe.

“The Arctic is warming twice as fast as rest of the world and temperatures there have risen by between three and five degrees over the last 50 years,” he added.

“Not only is the average temperature going to increase, but the climate will become more variable, with a much greater frequency of extreme weather events. The results of this destabilisation are already visible.”

Mr Dimas said the number of cold and frosty days has decreased in most parts of Europe, while the number and intensity of heat waves has increased.

Snow cover has declined in the Northern Hemisphere and the ice is melting. Between 1850 and 1980, glaciers in the European Alps lost a third of their area and half of their mass. Since 1980, another 20%-30% of the remaining ice has been lost.

People in the Swiss ski resort of Andermatt have taken to wrapping the local glacier with a giant insulating foil in order to slow down the melt and protect their livelihoods.

But this is clutching at straws. By 2050, about 75% of the glaciers in the Swiss Alps are likely to have disappeared, Mr Dimas believes.

The temperature of the oceans has also increased. And sea surface temperature is the trigger for tropical cyclone formation, which means we can expect more frequent and more violent hurricanes.

“The devastation brought by Hurricane Katrina provided a tragic demonstration of the massive damage that can be brought by extreme weather,” he said.

“While it is not possible to directly link individual events to climate change, these events are fully consistent with scientific predictions of what will happen as the planet heats up.”

While the current situation is worrying, he said what we see today is only the beginning of a period of further inevitable changes in the climate. The question now is: what we can do to limit the temperature increases to manageable levels?

The world’s climate experts project a further increase of between 1.4°C and a 5.8°C by the end of this century. Even the lower of these figures would represent the fastest warming since the last Ice Age ended 10,000 years ago.

Ireland, meanwhile, is falling well below its targets in reducing emissions and is one of the world’s largest per capita emitters of greenhouse gases.