By-elections are no more than a distorted verdict from a partial jury

IN a foreword he wrote to a book of mine a few years ago, the late Fine Gael TD Jim Mitchell argued that Dáil vacancies should be filled by co-options rather than through by-elections.

He had a point. Dáil by-elections are costly political exercises which give a distorted political influence to the voters of any constituency where, by reason of death or elevation to high office, a Dáil seat happens to come vacant.

Some argue that the value of by-elections is that they give the electorate an opportunity to pass judgement on the government mid-term. However, each by-election is a snapshot of public opinion in one constituency only, and so they are in reality nothing more than a distorted verdict from a partial jury.

This distortion is illustrated when you consider the by-elections due to be held soon in Meath and Kildare North. In the last general election, Kildare North was a three-seater and the quota was 25% of the votes cast.

Meath was a five-seater and the quota was 16.6% of the votes cast. In each by-election, however, there will only be one seat available so the quota in each of them will be 50%.

This high quota and the intense national and local media focus on the 'verdict on the government' aspect of the campaign means that by-elections in effect become two-horse races between the government candidate and whichever of the opposition candidates emerges as the strongest contender in the early running.

This is what is likely to happen again in Meath and Kildare North.

The trend is that governments don't win by-elections, and the current government certainly doesn't. FF's performance in by-elections in the last Dáil was disastrous. They lost all six by-elections held between 1997-2002, most of them badly.

FF again faces difficult tasks in Meath and Kildare. The current handling of the impasse with Sinn Féin is playing to Bertie Ahern's strengths and the most recent MRBI poll may have shown some recovery in the FF vote share, but sober heads in the party refuse to talk of an early electoral recovery.

The party knows that it has a long way to go to regain ground lost in last year's local and European elections. They know too that the ongoing Martin Cullen controversies are not helping.

Mind you, if FF were to pick two constituencies in which to have to fight mid term by-elections, then Meath and Kildare North might be the first they would choose.

In the last two general elections FF got more than 40% of the vote in Meath and won three out of the five Dáil seats. In Kildare North, FF polled 43% of the vote in the 2002 Dáil election and Charlie McCreevy and his running mate Paul Kelly came within 32 votes of winning two out of three seats.

Things are different mid-term, however. To compound their difficulties, FF has sustained several setbacks in its search for by-election candidates.

In Kildare North both Paul Kelly and Charles McCreevy Jr have decided not to contest, at least this time, while in Meath, FF's first choice candidate, Tom Reilly, got mired in stories about the purchase of some fields with Frank Dunlop.

As a result the party found itself at the start of February with no candidate in place for either by-election. They quickly addressed the problem in Meath by selecting a 26-year old councillor, Shane Cassells.

They are hoping that his youthful political energy and his high-profile GAA and Labour relations, together with the legendary FF operation in the county, can make up for the lack of time.

In Kildare North, FF has yet to select a candidate. Party managers are said to be settling on Áine Brady, a Celbridge teacher, whose two brothers and husband have been TDs.

Her brother, Tom, is the Government chief whip. Again, however, Kitt-Brady will need to come out of the blocks soon, and at speed, if she is to have any real prospect of holding onto this seat for the party.

There are many reasons why Fine Gael should be the main contender in both constituencies, at least to lead the opposition onslaught. Enda Kenny's party is rejuvenated on the back of last June's local and European election victories.

Nowhere was June's achievement more spectacular than in Leinster where FG won two European Parliament seats. Maireád McGuinness, in particular, got a spectacular vote in these same two counties where there will be so much by-election activity in the coming weeks.

The problem for FG, however, is that, as of now, their candidates in both constituencies are relative unknowns. Shane McEntee in Meath has strong GAA connections, but has nothing above a local government profile while Darren Scully in Kildare North doesn't even have that.

However, although FG's candidates may be newcomers, the party's campaign managers are not and they have been using their head start in the race well by seeking to redress their candidates recognition problem through large billboards, intense marketing spend and early canvassing.

For Labour, this will be a tale of two by-elections. As of now they have a real chance in Kildare North where their candidate, Paddy McNamara, is a well- established councillor. Labour's machine in that constituency is arguably their best in the country.

However, it is a lot to ask of Emmet Stagg that he unselfishly work flat-out to get a second Labour TD elected for this three-seater, which will again be competitive in the next Dáil election.

By comparison, Labour have been electorally insignificant in Meath since the party's former TD, Brian Fitzgerald, went independent over the merger with Democratic Left. They recruited an independent councillor into the party a few months ago to contest the by-election, but he will make little impact.

SF fortunes will also be different in each of the two constituencies. In Meath, their candidate, Joe Reilly, polled 6,042 first preferences in the 2002 Dáil election and will poll well again.

He has surfaced in many camera shots as the newest 'delegation decoration' at various SF trips to Downing Street and Government Buildings and at some of their more recent intemperate press conferences. In contrast, in Kildare North, SF will make no impression worth talking about.

The other name likely to feature in the coming weeks is that of Catherine Murphy, an independent member of Kildare County Council who was formerly a member of Labour and Democratic Left.

Murphy polled more than 2,000 votes in last year's local elections and the local media are talking up her chances of coming in ahead of both Labour and FG in the Kildare North by-election. It is hard to see it on the figures but stranger things have happened in by-elections.

One thing is certain. Because of our by-election system the electorates of Kildare North and Meath will have an overstated influence on our politics in the coming six weeks or so.

If the row over the new M3 motorway and how close it should or shouldn't be to the hill of Tara hasn't bored the rest of us enough over the last six months, then that's nothing like the coverage the issue will get over the next six weeks.

Whether it's rail services to Dunboyne or phone masts near Naas, every localised concern and parish pump row in these two constituencies will be writ large on the national media stage between now and the likely polling day in early March. Like it or not we're into by-election season.