Our free, green energy will be embarrassed by intermittent wind

AN ORGANISATION nobody knows has just blown a hole in the future of wind energy in this country.

The organisation is a chunk of the former ESB, split off because of de-regulation, called ESB National Grid, or ESB NG. This new acronym operates the national electricity system. They don't catch electricity out of the Shannon or cook it up from Bord na Móna peat in power stations. They just own the pipes. Or the flexes. Or whatever the hell is the conduit electricity travels in order to get to our homes and factories. And they have just come out with a report about wind energy.

"This report," says its introduction, "quantifies the operational and economic impact of large levels of wind generation on Ireland's generation system. It finds that the potential fuel and emissions savings are tempered by the inherent intermittence of wind."

Those two exciting sexy sentences are at the very beginning, before it gets into the main text. What's that you say? Written by an engineer? Probably. But that is not to suggest there's anything wrong with the report or with engineers or with the particular engineer who may have written it.

This newspaper does not seek to be sued by engineers (general) or engineer (specific). Engineers are mighty and ESB engineers sorry, engineers working for the totally separate amputated flex-owning NG unit that historically was part of the Electricity Supply Board are even mightier.

Are we clear on that? Phew.

What was interesting about the report, with its pleasing pictures of wind turbines bathed in sunshine, was that it didn't attack wind power. It's not a good thing to attack wind power, for a number of reasons.

First of all, even National Grid folks, who, upon meeting former ESB colleagues in the street cut them dead to emphasise how separate they are from them, won't have completely forgotten that ESB does own a wind farm or two. Tilting at any windmills means tilting at ESB windmills.

The second reason nobody should attack wind energy is that it has a romantic hold on the imagination of environmentalists. Wind energy is endless, sustainable, natural, green and free. Electricity can be cooked up using a lot of raw materials, but compared to polluting sources like coal, dangerous sources like isotopes, or finite sources like oil, wind is like the hero brand in a detergent ad: would you go back to your own brand? Not a chance. The wind, it doth blow and we shall have energy.

Against this background of wind as a clean freebie just waiting to be captured and transformed into guilt-free wattage, read the NG's introduction again. And watch out for that quiet killer phrase: "the inherent intermittence of wind".

You know what that means? It means the wind it doth blow when the wind fancies blowing. The wind it doth blow and it'll also stop blowing quick as look at you. The wind it doth blow only 35% of the time.

Ireland could get as much as 35% of its energy from wind. No argument about that. No argument about the national and global environmental gain. The problem is not the amount, but the intermittence.

As I type these words, I'm looking out at conifers six storeys tall, and not a needle is moving on one of them, because at this moment, the wind it doth not blow. Which is no problem since the power going into my computer is unaffected by the intermittence of the wind.

It's when intermittent supply meets constant need that the problem arises. We need power all the time. The lights have to stay on all the time. Introducing an element of whimsy into the energy supply system would have limited appeal for most consumers.

Which is why we have lots of alternative sources. Except and this is the disturbing implication of the flex-owner's report it is costly to keep power stations standing by and producing nothing when the wind doth blow, in order to fill the wattage gap when the wind doth not. So costly that including wind energy in the mix may push up the overall cost of electricity by as much as 20%.

It doesn't sound possible that something which is free, added to the mix, would raise the price of the end product, but that's the inescapable outcome of the computer simulations behind this report. Wind energy enthusiasts will immediately say "Oh, but we can get energy from overseas".

TRUE. But only in a limited sense. At the moment, we have one connection coming in to Ireland from overseas. It originates in Scotland and comes through Northern Ireland. And it needs a bit of notice. Not much notice. You can order your extra electricity a day ahead. The problem with wind is that when it decides it has bullied enough daffodils for one day, it quits. There and then. So the NG guys would end up telephoning the guys in Scotland and saying "Lads, any chance you'd see us right for a few million watts right now? We're a bit short and it wouldn't do to put everyone's telly off the air in the last two minutes of the match at Twickenham, you know how it is?"

The guys in Scotland would not want to turn off TVs all over Ireland. But they might have no choice. Because some of their electricity is coming from wind, too. And the winds that blow over Ireland tend to be closely related to the winds that blow over Scotland.

So if the winds stop supplying the Irish national grid, at around the same time, the Scottish national grid is going to feel a bit weak. The Scots are likely to follow the traditional airline advice: Put the mask on your own face first. At which point (to paraphrase Churchill) the lights would begin to go out all over Ireland. Not to mention the televisions, computers and factory machinery. And if it happens in the final two minutes of a match like Saturday's, you can imagine the consequences.

It is, of course, possible to throw more interconnections across the Irish Sea to allow Ireland to tap into energy generated in Britain or even on the continent. Possible, but extremely costly, as will any infrastructure developed to accommodate the input of wind energy to our system while ensuring the maintenance of supply to every home, factory and office.

On TV yesterday, the kingpin of wind power in Ireland, Eddie O'Connor, rightly pointed out that in 10 or 15 years' time, wind power may be a lot more cost-effective than fossil fuels as a way of making electricity.

This report, however, for the first time, makes it clear that in the short to medium term wind power's long-term environmental benefit may have to be purchased by upping the price of electricity by as much as a fifth. Policy makers will pretty soon have to make tough choices on this one.

Simply because the wind it doth blow only when it suits the wind to blow.

Or, as the NG guys more poshly describe it, because of the "inherent intermittence" of the wind.