Population shifts will soon change much of the political landscape

Whenever population trends shift the redraw of constituencies is never far behind. Last week's publication of the final 2002 census details has set tongues wagging around Leinster House.

The figures show dramatic differences in the rate of population growth in different parts of the country and these will have a significant impact on the future shape of Dáil and European constituencies.

Let's take the Dáil constituencies first. According to Census 2002, Ireland has a population of just over 3.9 million.

When you divide this by 166 TDs in the Dáil, this gives you a national ratio of 22,598 people per TD.

The Constitution requires that the ratio of TDs to the population must be as equal as possible throughout the country and this in practice has been taken to mean that no constituency can deviate more than 5% above or below that national ratio.

The most striking thing about the census figures is that the county of Kildare is dramatically under-represented in the Dáil. Kildare is divided into two constituencies with three seats each.

The population of Kildare has increased by more than one-fifth since the last census in 1996. Before any boundary commission even begins its work, one thing is certain Kildare will have an additional seat in the next Dáil.

This is likely to go to Kildare North with maybe a slight adjustment of the boundary between north and south.

The other area entitled to a new Dáil seat is that part of Dublin which borders Kildare. The likely approach here is to turn the three-seat Dublin Mid-West constituency into a four-seater.

This constituency covers Lucan and Condalkin and will be enlarged to include Palmerstown. It would be possible to increase the number of TDs from 166 to 168 in order to give these new seats to Kildare North and Dublin Mid-West.

There is some justification for this since the overall population has gone up almost 300,000 since 1996.

However, the media is likely to jump all over any proposal to increase the number of TDs, so two Dáil seats are going to have to be taken from some other part of the country.

One option is to take a seat from the northside of Dublin. On the basis of the 2002 population figures, the northside of Dublin could justify holding onto its 21 Dáil seats.

However, it would also be within the ratio if it were reduced to 20 seats.

In any case, there are likely to be extensive redraws between constituencies north of the Liffey because the rate of population growth varies and in some pockets there has even been a decline in population.

Cork is the county most likely to lose a Dáil seat.

It has 20 TDs divided between five constituencies. Together, these constituencies have a population of 447,829 which gives an average ratio of 22,391 per TD.

This is below the average national ratio of 23,598. Therefore, there could be dramatic changes to the Cork constituencies which could perhaps see a redrawn Cork North Central lose a seat or even an amalgamation of some of the constituencies.

Another part of the country where there is room for change is in Mid Connacht and North Leinster. The LongfordRoscommon and Sligo Leitrim constituencies are well below the national average ratio.

A redraw would make sense and could also be the opportunity to cure the anomaly of LongfordRoscommon, the only constituency which breaches provincial boundaries.

It is also divided down the middle by the Shannon (across which transfers seldom swim).

The ripple effect of this could see constituencies of SligoNorth Leitrim, RoscommonSouth Leitrim, LongfordWestmeath and two Meath three-seaters.

The implications of the 2002 census figures for the European constituencies is of more immediate interest. The next European parliament election will be held in June 2004.

Some candidates are already in the traps for this race, although it is not yet clear what will be the precise shape of the track on which they will run. As a result of EU enlargement,

Ireland is losing two of its 15 seats in the parliament.

Over the summer months, a European constituency commission will be undertaking a redraw of these constituencies to take account of this reduction of seats and of the population changes revealed in last week's census report.

THE European constituencies of Dublin, the rest of Leinster and Munster have four seats each, while Connacht-Ulster has three seats.

It had initially been expected that the reduction to 13 seats would be achieved by reducing Munster and Leinster from four-seaters to three-seaters.

However, last week's census figures show that the redraw might not be as straightforward as first thought.

On the basis of the 2002 census, the national ratio (dividing the total population by 13) is 301,323 people per MEP.

There is more leeway for deviation from the national ratio for the European election because there is no express constitutional requirement for the ratio to be equal throughout the country.

If one were to stick to a strict ratio allowing the constituencies to vary above or below by just 5%, then Leinster is too big to be a three-seater, while the population of Dublin is too small for it to stay a four-seater, but too large for it to be made a three-seater.

The wiggle room from the ratio is therefore going to have to be larger than 5%. Alternatively, the boundary between Dublin and the rest of Leinster will have to be skewed by putting large parts of Meath, Louth or Kildare into the Dublin constituency.

A more dramatic step would be to leave the Leinster constituency with four seats and to redraw the Dublin county of Fingal into it. This would make the rest of Dublin a three-seater.

Having looked at the figures and tried various permutations, this appears to be the redraw of Dublin and Leinster which comes closest to an equal ratio.

Dividing greater Dublin like this would cause a backlash in the capital, although it can be argued that much of Fingal now has more in common with adjoining areas in Louth and Meath than they have with Dublin city.

Sticking to close ratios will be even more difficult in Munster and Connacht Ulster. Connacht Ulster falls far short of the ratio required to be a three-seater.

Munster is short of having the right ratio to be a four- seater but too big to be a three-seater.

Some suggest that Clare, with its population of 105,000, should be transferred to the ConnachtUlster constituency.

Although this would leave Connacht-Ulster still short of the numbers required for a three-seater, it would be an acceptable level.

Another alternative would be to change the law to allow a reduced Connacht-Ulster to be a two-seater and put all or much of Galway into Munster which could then be a four-seater, but this would be controversial.

A more radical solution to all the difficulties presented by the need to redraw the European constituencies is finally to bite the bullet and go for one 13-seat national constituency for the European parliament.