School closures for heat could now be more likely than snow days

As recently as 2003, a heatwave like the current one in Europe would have been 2C cooler due to the lower level of global heating at the time, a new study has warned. Picture: Andy Gibson

Schools in Ireland may be forced to shut for hot days rather than snow days in future, experts have warned, as a new study found the sweltering heatwave sweeping Europe is the most severe ever recorded.

A new rapid analysis of the record-shattering conditions by World Weather Attribution experts, including Claire Bergin from the Icarus Climate Research Centre in Maynooth University, suggested it is “unequivocal” that such heatwaves exceeding 40C in parts are increasing in likelihood and magnitude because of climate change.

“This summer shows that at 1.4C of global warming, extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies’ ability to cope,” the study said.

“Our analysis here shows that intense heat is increasing rapidly even in living memory, with such events tens to hundreds of times more likely since only 2003 and virtually impossible just 50 years ago.” 

Historic highs 

Previous heatwaves saw deaths in the thousands across Europe and, while it will take time to ascertain the full impact of the conditions this month, the heatwave is certain to exact a heavy toll and is also disrupting lives and livelihoods, with schools closed, hospitals struggling, and rail and air journeys cancelled across the continent.

As recently as 2003, a heatwave like the current one in Europe would have been 2C cooler due to the lower level of global heating at the time. In 1976, another famous heatwave year, it would have been 3.5C cooler.

The sweltering night-time temperatures currently harming people’s sleep are about 100 times more likely today than in 2003. The scientists warned that without urgent climate action, future heat conditions would get even more extreme and the current summer could seem relatively cool in retrospect.

Buildings not equipped to cope

The study also highlighted that, in countries like Ireland, buildings were historically optimised to retain heat rather than dissipate it with enforced school closures being seen in the UK and France showing how many public buildings and institutions remain insufficiently adapted to extreme temperatures.

It also found nearly half of the cities in 30 European countries have or will break their highest ever heat stress levels during this period, with Dublin, Belfast, Derry, Waterford, and Galway on the list.

“We know that historically, Ireland is known as wet and cool,” Ms Bergin said. “While we will continue to see wet periods in the future, our bodies are not used to continuing our daily lives in the high temperatures set to become a more regular occurrence in our summer months in particular.

“Our buildings are designed to retain heat; this is unlike buildings in historically warmer locations which are more breathable and tend to include cooling features like air conditioning and ceiling fans.

“It is possible that we no longer see schools closed for snow days but instead they will be closed for hot days.” 

Ms Bergin added that our infrastructure is not prepared for increasing heat, and that while some will be enjoying the elevated temperatures, people are dying across Europe and in other areas of the globe prematurely because of intense heat.

It comes as the hot weather was set to ease slightly over the weekend after again peaking in the high 20Cs on Friday.

Met Éireann issued a thunderstorm warning for 12 counties on Friday while a status yellow high temperature warning was set to remain in place until Saturday morning.

CLIMATE & SUSTAINABILITY HUB