'False sense of security': Warning that Ireland will be affected too if Donald Trump undermines Nato

US president-elect Donald Trump. File Picture: AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Ireland “still has a very false sense of security” and any undermining of the Nato military alliance by the incoming Trump presidency will have an impact on neutral Ireland, a senior European policy expert has said.

Brigid Laffan, Emeritus Professor at the European University Institute, said that Ireland’s geographic location on the edge of Europe no longer protects against the activities of states hostile to Europe.

She was speaking at a webinar organised by the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA). 

Dan O’Brien of the IIEA asked Prof Laffan her views of recent comments in Ireland that we would be unaffected by any undermining of Nato by Donald Trump when he takes over the US presidency in January.

She said: “The idea that, somehow or another, Ireland would not be that affected by a significant change in collective security by Nato in Europe is an extraordinary statement, because we are an FDI [foreign direct investment] state, we are a trading state, we depend on a stable international system, we’re a highly globalised economy, and there are certain things geography won’t help us with.

“They won’t help us with cyber, they won’t help us with the hybrid [everything short of physical military conflict] nature of war today, energy security, cables, interconnector with France, etc.” Prof Laffan added: 

I think we still have a very false sense of security in Ireland, very false. It won’t just be a problem for Poland, it will be a European problem, for all of Europe. 

Ben Tonra, professor of international relations at UCD, said he expected that the ‘America first’ agenda of Mr Trump would result in “ongoing and accelerated hybrid attacks" by Russia, particularly affecting the Baltic states and Poland.

He said that when Ireland faced an “existential crisis” with the possible imposition of a hard border on the island during Brexit it launched a successful diplomatic campaign and 26 member states “rallied around Ireland”.

But he said we now faced the prospect that if the Baltic states or Poland say they are facing an existential threat from Russia and turn to member states, including Ireland, for help, that Ireland will “wash its hands and say ‘we’re happy to send you blankets and prayers’ but that’s the sum total”.

He asked: In such a scenario “what is Ireland neutral about?"