Climate change 'poses major risk to global peace and security'

The expected increase in climate refugees will likely put 'stress on cities and urban areas where the demand for housing, food, energy, and jobs may rise', said the European Commission. Picture: Fareed Khan/AP

Increasingly intensive climate change could have major implications for peace and security globally, with mass migration, pandemics, and war the likely consequences, the European Commission has warned.

The commission said the EU now needs to be more cognisant of the proliferation of threats posed by climate change in areas such as organised crime, armed forces, national security, and food production.

It warned that in the past 15 years, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that an annual average of 21.5m people have been forcibly displaced by weather-related events, with these numbers expected to increase.

Some 12 of the 20 countries most vulnerable to and least prepared for climate change were in conflict in 2020 according to UN data, the commission said.

Environmental crime has become the fourth-most lucrative on a global scale, it added.

"By 2050, over 1bn people will have insufficient access to water, soil degradation could rise to 90%, and demand for food could increase by 60%," the commission said in a joint communication with the EU's Foreign Affairs High Representative to the European Parliament and the European Council.

Climate change and environmental degradation are intrinsically interlinked and exacerbating each other, and are already affecting food security, reducing the yield of major crops such as maize, rice, and wheat, and increasing the risk of simultaneous harvest failures in major producing countries.

Instability brought about by climate change and extreme weather events is being exploited by organised crime and corrupt regimes, it warned in its communication to the parliament and the council.

The expected proliferation of climate refugees will likely put "stress on cities and urban areas where the demand for housing, food, energy, and jobs may rise".

Homes are surrounded by floodwaters, likely worsened by climate change, in Sohbat Pur city, Pakistan, in August 2022. Picture: Zahid Hussain/AP

Vulnerable populations in distress are at risk of being targeted by smugglers and other organised crime organisations, while armed groups can and do exploit an increased vulnerabilities when recruiting child soldiers and combatants, the commission said.

Soldiers and emergency responders will need new equipment in the future to adapt to climate change, according to the analysis.

"Next generation military equipment needs to be able to operate under challenging climate conditions. Armed forces need to adapt to those harsher conditions and be trained and equipped for more frequent military assistance to civilian authorities in response to natural disasters, and military infrastructure needs to become more climate resilient using cleaner technologies," it said.

Executive vice-president for the European Green Deal, Frans Timmermans, said the climate and environmental crises "bring sweeping changes to our world at a speed that has never before been seen in human history".

"We see radicalisation, displacement, hunger, migration flows, of course, and an increasing number of conflicts over water and land that are happening. 

"The more intense and frequent the droughts, the wildfires and environmental destruction will be, the worse these conflicts will become," he said.

"This is an issue with global implications and considerable risks."