EPA reveals just how far Ireland is from reaching emissions targets

Transport emissions are predicted to fall by between 1% and 35%, despite a 50% target. File Picture: Gerard McCarthy 

Stark new figures have revealed how far off course Ireland is from reaching its greenhouse gas emissions targets by the end of the decade.

By then, the goal was to have reduced emissions by 51%. However, according to the Environmental Protection Agency, they are on course to have been cut by just 29% — with key sectors such as agriculture and transport way off target.

Even that 29% cut will only happen if all emissions-reduction plans currently mooted and in train are implemented, the EPA says. If the planned actions are not implemented and existing measures are relied upon, the reduction is forecast to be just 11%.

Overall, the EPA found that almost all sectors will exceed their national sectoral emissions ceilings for 2025 and 2030.

In what is the organisation's bleakest warning on national climate targets so far, EPA director general Laura Burke said the country "needs to grasp the climate nettle".

EPA director general Laura Burke. Picture: Julien Behal

The carbon budgets will be missed by a significant margin — between 24% and 34% — the EPA says.

It projects that total emissions from agriculture will decrease by between 4% and 20% to 2030, despite having a 25% target. The 20% could be reached through the likes of switching to different fertilisers, limits on nitrogen fertiliser usage, and cattle-feed additives.

Transport emissions are predicted to fall by between 1% and 35%, despite a 50% target, and that is only if measures such as 940,000 electric vehicles on the roads and a slashing of a fifth of journeys by 2030 are implemented. Freight will be the biggest source of road transport greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, the EPA says.

Emissions from land use and forestry are projected to actually increase from 2021 to 2030 as forestry reaches harvesting age and changes from a carbon sink to a carbon source, the EPA says.

Only emissions from buildings such as homes, which are projected to decrease by between 36% and 47% by the end of the decade, will meet their target. 

Ireland's carbon budgets, which allocate emissions ceilings to the likes of motorists, households, farmers, businesses, and industry in five-year cycles, aim to reduce emissions by 4.8% per annum from 2021 to 2025 under the first block, while the 2026-2030 budget will increase that annual reduction target to 8.3%.

The updated Climate Action Plan was approved by Government in December, and provides progress on Ireland’s climate action, as well as reporting on the progress made in meeting a 51% reduction in emissions by 2030, and climate neutrality by 2050.

The EPA says further measures must be identified and implemented if the 51% target is to be met.

"We’re in the third year of the first carbon budget period, with only seven more years left to 2030," said Mr Burke.

A continued lack of delivery of large-scale practical actions to decarbonise activities in all sectors will see us exceed our carbon budgets."

However, University College Cork professor Hannah Daly said she disagrees with those who say that the carbon budgets will not be met.

"They absolutely can be, but it needs political leadership, societal mobilisation, and urgent action," she said.