'We have yet to see the true impact of Christmas celebrations', says public health specialist

Members of the public queuing outside a Covid-19 testing centre at the Croke Park handball alley yesterday. Picture: Sam Boal / RollingNews.ie

The true number of Covid-cases in the community could be up to four times higher than PCR tests indicate, a member of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has warned.

The concerning statement came as the country saw over 20,000 new cases confirmed, the fourth time in a week that Ireland saw a new record daily figure.

The latest positivity rate reached 49.5%. 

The World Health Organisation has said when positivity goes over 5% in any country, cases are missed.

“We certainly aren’t detecting all of them. I think there could be three to four times as many infections as there are documented cases,” said Cathal Walsh, professor of statistics at the University of Limerick and member of the Nphet epidemiological modelling group.

“That would be somewhere between 60 and 80,000 infections.” 

Prof Walsh said studies have shown during the first wave in Ireland 30% to 40% of cases were missed. Testing cannot keep expanding, he said.

At present, we might be missing 70% of infections, but we know that. It is one of the features of statistics: We appreciate the fact we are not going to pick up everyone.

Nphet modelling published on December 16 included a pessimistic scenario of over 20,000 cases daily with more than 400 Covid-patients needing ICU care and over 1,500 in hospitals.

“The big plus is we have got a lot of boosters out, that is the hope," he said. 

"But a slight change in that fraction could make a big change to the total numbers, the hospital numbers have gone up substantially.” 

Across Limerick, Clare, and North Tipperary daily Covid-19 cases are “more than double” pre-Christmas figures, the department of public health in the Mid-West has said.

“We have yet to see the true impact of Christmas celebrations and the current Omicron wave,” Dr Rose Fitzgerald, a specialist in public health medicine, said. 

“Due to the current high levels of infection in the community, any social encounter increases our risk of infection or of becoming infected.”  

She called on the public to limit New Year’s Eve socialising.

Meanwhile, the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation (INMO) has called on the HSE to curtail all activity except emergency urgent care to ease pressures on the public hospital system.

With 287 patients on trolleys yesterday morning, the INMO urged the HSE to publish and implement a Plan B, as general secretary Phil Ní Sheaghdha said the figures now will likely be tripled in early January.

“Our public health service is too small to try provide emergency care, Covid care and carry out elective treatments,” she said.

Ms Ní Sheaghdha highlighted pressures around the country, including ambulances re-routed from Wexford to Waterford because of overcrowding.

“Our creaking health service is currently being held together by the goodwill of nurses and midwives who are cancelling annual leave and staying beyond their rostered time to ensure that wards are staffed,” Ms Ní Sheaghdha said.

A HSE spokesperson said: “A number of measures have been taken to prepare for the Christmas period and assist with patient flow."