Ireland at beginning of fourth Covid wave, public health officials say

Speaking at a briefing with reporters on Thursday, the State’s Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said they are beginning to see a negative change in incidence happening. Pictures: Gareth Chaney/Collins

Ireland is at the beginning of the fourth wave of Covid-19 and a “serious level of transmission” is expected in the coming weeks, public health officials have warned.

Speaking at a briefing with reporters on Thursday, the State’s Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said they are beginning to see a negative change in incidence happening.

“We see the five-day average more or less tracking up for the last week or 10 days. We think that’s going to lead us into another wave of transmission,” he said.

Prof Philip Nolan, chairman of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said the country is in a “concerning situation”, with an increase in incidence across most age groups, particularly among the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated.

This recent upward trend “underscores the importance” of closing out the vaccination programs and getting the second dose, Prof Nolan said.

Hospitalisation rates - which had previously been decreasing - have stabilised, raising concern there might be an increase over the coming weeks.

Prof Nolan confirmed that this was the beginning of a fourth wave, but said what was not yet known was how big the wave would be, and to what extent the wave would translate into hospitalisation.

“The two positives are that we are intervening at a point in social reopening contact where most of the contact is modest in size or outdoors so in comparison to other countries across Europe where there are higher levels of social mixing, we may see a smaller wave as a consequence,” he said.

“The other is the rapid progress in the vaccination programme.” 

Dr Ronan Glynn, deputy chief medical officer, said the way in which the virus is behaving had changed since the introduction of this variant.

The R number currently is estimated as being between 1 and 1.2, while the 14-day average is 103 cases per 100,000 population. 

The Delta variant now accounts for approximately 70% of new cases, up from 55% of new cases earlier this week.

Dr Ronan Glynn, deputy chief medical officer, said the way in which the virus is behaving had changed since the introduction of this variant.

“One of the things that public health doctors are telling us at the moment is this is not like previously. It’s not about one workplace, one pub or one family. Once it gets into a community, it’s spreading much easier than previously," he said.

It is in light of this, Dr Holohan said, that the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) could not recommend the resumption of indoor dining as planned.

However, he said Nphet was keen to "offer a benefit" to those who are fully vaccinated, which was why they proposed a Covid pass to allow vaccinated individuals to dine indoors.

Asked if there would be a need to reintroduce certain restrictions in light of the Delta wave, Dr Holohan said the team had not yet reached that conclusion but would not rule anything out in the future.

Prof Nolan added that using the latest advice from the National Immunisation Advisory Committee - which recommends the use of J&J and AstraZeneca in under 40s, with consent -  in the modelling "would not make a great deal of difference in the short term".

Meanwhile, an additional 448 cases of Covid-19 and two additional Covid-related deaths were reported on Thursday, bringing the total number of deaths in the State to 5,000.