More transmissible Delta variant now accounts for 70% of Covid-19 cases

HSE chief executive Paul Reid, Anne O'Connor, chief operations officer with the HSE; Dr Colm Henry, chief clinical officer, HSE, and Damien McCallion, national lead of the HSE vaccination programme at Dr Steevens’ Hospital for the weekly HSE operational update on the response to Covid-19. Picture: Sam Boal / Photocall Ireland

Dr Cillian De Gascun, from the National Virus Reference Laboratory, said there will be an update on the prevalence of the variant next Monday, but "if we look at the preliminary data for the first half of this week, it’s up at around 70%”.

Over the past three weeks, he said Delta has risen from 9% of cases one week, to 28% the next and then to 55% at the end of last week.

Earlier, the HSE chief clinical officer Dr Colm Henry said the Delta variant of Covid-19 now makes up an estimated 55% of cases in Ireland.

Furthermore, HSE chief executive Paul Reid warned that if the pessimistic forecasts around increased case numbers due to the variant from the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) come to pass, it will have an “explosive” impact on health services due to the issues already caused by the cyberattack.

Data presented by Dr Henry shows more intensive full genomic sequencing results, which showed there were 220 cases of the Delta variant here as of June 12. 

However, the faster screening system known as S-gene analysis estimates that many more, about 55% of cases, are now likely to be the variant.

“What we have seen in recent weeks are more outbreaks associated with S gene positivity,” Dr Henry said.

“That S-gene positivity is a marker laid down for a number of weeks later for the whole genomic sequencing that turns out to be the Delta variant. The stories we are getting from our public health directors is that outbreaks happen a little bit easier among younger, unvaccinated groups.” 

Ireland's Covid-19 death toll has reached 5,000, with two further fatalities reported today.

A further 448 Covid cases has been confirmed to the Department of Health, and 44 people have been hospitalised with the virus, of which 14 are in intensive care.

The 14-day incidence rate per 100,000 of population is highest in Limerick at 229.9 followed by Donegal at 226. But Dr Henry said the rate in Limerick has “dropped considerably” in just a few weeks from more than 400 in mid-June.

He said up to now the vaccines have protected vulnerable people against the virus really well, but there are concerns for unvaccinated people as the Delta variant spreads.

Impact of the cyberattack

Paul Reid said the health system continues to struggle with the impact of the cyberattack – today marks eight weeks since the criminal gang first struck.

He quoted an international benchmark showing 56% of organisations hit by cyberattacks are hit again within weeks of getting back online.

Mr Reid said if the Delta variant were to spread unchecked in combination with the impact of the cyberattack, it would have an “explosive” impact on services.

The HSE has set up a “service operations centre” run by an international partner; this monitors the networks 24-7, he said.

It has now decrypted 80% of 4,891 servers, and 79% of 83,000 "end-user" devices. Just six health service sites are now waiting to get functionality but 46 are back to normal, according to HSE chief operations officer Anne O’ Connor.

Diagnostics and scanning are working at 53 sites, and 35 of 39 laboratories are now functioning.

Ms O’ Connor said attendances at emergency departments in large model 4 hospitals including Cork University Hospital are 15.2% up on 2019. But the numbers requiring a bed are lower. One reason is people cannot access scans through GPs due to the cyberattack but she is hopeful this will soon change.