UK variant could lead to fourth Covid wave, scientist warns

Professor Gerry Killeen said there was a need for a 'total societal response' and further tightening of public health restrictions to stave off potentially 'terrifying' infection rates.

A UCC scientist has expressed “alarm” at the current Covid picture in Ireland, which could “get an awful lot worse” and lead to a fourth wave of infections.

Professor Gerry Killeen said there was a need for a “total societal response” and further tightening of public health restrictions to stave off potentially “terrifying” infection rates.

Ireland, he said, is currently seeing two waves of infection, one from the original virus and the other from the more transmissible and infectious UK variant.

While infection levels show signs of falling in Ireland, the virology expert said there was a risk the UK variant would dominate and fuel a fourth wave of infection in the coming weeks.

“The big question is do we get a fourth wave bursting through in a week or two from now,” Prof Killeen said.

While he described the UK variant as “not far off being uncontainable”, he said modelling estimates suggested it was “doable” to contain the current waves with level 5 restrictions, although it remained an “open question” and there was no certainty.

There is no room for half-measures, Prof Killeen said: 

I would be alarmed by the numbers we are seeing. As bad as things are and as bad as they will get in the next few weeks it can get an awful lot worse if we go into a fourth wave.”

His comments come as the World Health Organisation (WHO) met on Thursday to examine the emergence of new variants of the virus.

Dr Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, told a webinar on Thursday that new variants could “change the game” and were being monitored closely.

Concerning—WHO head @DrTedros now sounding the alarm on concern that more the virus spreads, increases chance of mutations.

He adds: "Transmissibility of some variants of the virus appears to be increasing." #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/SOW2P14qpf

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 11, 2021

“The emergence of variants is now adding to the complexity of the task,” he said, leaving several countries, such as the UK and Ireland, now “rowing against the tide coming in”.

I’m not without hope but I’m concerned that we’re not sustaining the things we need to do at any level and we’re doing that in the face of the emergence of variants that may change the game. 

"If those variants begin to change the rules of the game then we could be in serious trouble,” Dr Ryan said.

“The jury is still out. There is a lot of work ongoing to establish whether or not any of the emerging variants have any negative impact on vaccines. We don’t have any hard evidence as of yet but we have to be very careful,” he added.