Doctor who warned of Covid impact last January says new variant could keep schools shut
Last January, Dr Eric Feigl-Ding compared the virus to the Spanish flu, a statement that was dismissed as alarmist.
The new B117 variant of Covid-19 in Ireland could keep schools shut for longer than expected.
That's according to the US epidemiologist Dr Eric Feigl-Ding, who gained notoriety in January 2020 when he posted a detailed warning of the likely impact of the virus, which had, at that point, only brought Wuhan in China to a standstill.
At the time, Dr Feigl-Ding compared the virus to the Spanish flu, a statement that was dismissed as alarmist. However, over a year on from then, the virus has continued to rage across the globe.
Now Dr Feigl-Ding is warning there may be a need for greater intensity of public health measures in Ireland, as the new variant becomes more prominent.
2) Ireland meantime. Their new #b117 prevalence was announced as now 45% of all #COVID19 cases today, up from 25% last week, up from 9% two weeks prior. https://t.co/igJmmRyTaP
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 11, 2021
“It may mean we cannot ‘afford’ the leeway to keep schools open anymore that we could before,” Dr Feigl-Ding said.
“And we may need to switch to premium mask mandates,” he added, referring to masks such as FFP2 and N95, which offer higher levels of protection.
Earlier this week, Dr Feigl-Ding shared an alarming Twitter thread, in which he said Ireland and Northern Ireland are in a serious Covid-19 crisis.
He also claimed that the new variant – sometimes referred to as the UK strain – now accounts for 25% of Covid-19 cases in Ireland.
Reports suggest the UK strain may be up to 70% more transmissible or infectious, however, recent research by Public Health England puts it between 30% and 50%.
On Monday, Dr Cillian De Gascun, medical virologist and director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory, gave a stark warning on the B117, UK variant.
Further testing of Covid-19 samples indicates that the UK variant continues to account for an increasing number of cases – more than 40% of the positive cases tested in the last seven days can be traced back to this variant,” said Dr De Gascun.
"The greater risk of infection posed by this new variant increases the risk of transmission of the disease in the community.
"Now, more than ever, there is an urgent need for vigilance in our individual response to the disease, which is spread through close proximity to others.
"This virus cannot spread when households do not mix together, when social gatherings do not occur and when people stay at home for all but essential reasons,” he added.
2) To be clear, we’ve known #SARSCoV2 is airborne (and known for a while now, despite deniers & downplayers).
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 14, 2021
But the #b117 is even more transmissible.
aerosol study indicates that coronavirus is persistent and stable up to 16 hours in stagnant air. pic.twitter.com/dUUjHriWge
The variant was identified by the UK in December while another strain, 501.V2, was detected in South Africa in October.
Both strains are now understood to have been found in Ireland, however, the 501.V2 has only been reported in a small number of cases.
On January 2, another new variant, this one believed to have originated in Brazil, was found in Japan after four travellers who arrived at Tokyo’s Haneda airport were tested.
