Unemployment falls in October

The dole queues have shortened for the first time since the recession began, according to Live Register figures released this morning.

After several months of heavy falls followed by no change in the month of September, October's fall of 7,500 suggests Ireland's employment situation is now turning the corner.

The total Live Register figure for the month was 412,407, a drop of 7,447 on the previous month, but an increase of 161,727 year-on-year.

The seasonally adjusted Live Register total decreased from 425,500 in September to 422,500 in October, a decrease of 3,000. The seasonally-adjusted figure was however up 161,900 on the previous year.

The standardised unemployment rate in October was 12.5%.

The drop in unemployment comes after 30 consecutive months of increases.

Analysts said the decline in the number of males registering as unemployed - down 4,700 in October - was likely due to an increase in the pace of outward emigration.

"It is very likely that these are previous male immigrants now leaving the country," said Deirdre Ryan, economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers. More detailed figures indicating a breakdown of the figures according to nationality will be released on Friday.

Ms Ryan said the data further underlined the signs of stabilisation that have occurred in the overall Irish economic backdrop over recent months and should provide the Government with some welcome relief in terms of the social welfare component of spending throughout the course of 2010.

However the drop in unemployment could not be taken as a concrete indicator that the jobs crisis has peaked.

Goodbody said it expects unemployment to peak at 14%, most likely in the third quarter of next year.

Today's figures received a mixed response from business groups.

The Irish Business and Employers' Confederation (IBEC) said that while the fall in the Live Register is welcome, it is too early to say that the economy has turned a corner.

"The Live Register numbers are an indication, not a measure of unemployment," IBEC Chief Economist David Croughan said.

"Business remains under immense pressure due to the global downturn and the massive fall in the value of sterling. It is vital that the government puts in place a stimulus package to retain current employment and stimulate job creation."

The Irish Small & Medium Enterprises Association (ISME) meanwhile warned that the Live Register figures masked the true extent of the unemployment problem, saying that "dreadful" redundancy figures provided a truer reflection of the scale of the crisis.

“These live register figures are masking the real crisis in the labour market, which was highlighted by the latest redundancy figures, confirming 67,207 job losses year to date, an increase of 110% on the same period last yearj," said ISME chief executive Mark Fielding.

"The reality is that increased emigration, increased numbers on FAS schemes and younger individuals extending their studies is the cause of the reduction and not some miraculous improvement in the labour market."

ISME called for an increased focus on introducing initiatives to maintain employment, including extending the Employment Subsidy Scheme to all sectors of the business community.