One in 3 women in Ireland officially low paid

Almost one in three female employees is low paid, with those women earning, on average, more than €2 less than the €11.45 figure set as the threshold for low pay.

In its latest Quarterly Economic Observer, the Nevin Economic Research Institute pointed out that the 207,000 women earning less than €11.45 per hour equated to 29.3% of the female workforce. That compared to two out of every ten men in a similar position.

The trade union economic thinktank said, on average, the earnings of those low-paid women represent 55% of their household’s total earnings. Furthermore, 45.6% of low-paid women are the main earners in their households, while 34% provide all of their home’s total earnings.

The research found that more than 60% of the low-paid women work in one of three sectors: Wholesale and retail (24%); accommodation and food (19.7%); and health and social work (18.4%). Seven out of every 10 female employees in the accommodation and food sector were low paid.

“Almost a quarter of all low-paid females work in the Dublin region, with almost one in five (17.2%) in the neighbouring Mid-East region,” said the NERI. “The lowest concentrations are in the Southeast, West, and Midlands.”

Elsewhere, the economic thinktank has forecast there will be a “steady” decrease in unemployment out to 2017. It predicts the 2016 figure will reach a low of 8.3%; adding that it expects the level to dip to as low as 7.8% by the end of 2017. In terms of job creation, it forecast further employment growth of 2.2% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017.

“We expect the numbers employed to exceed 2m during this year,” it added. “In particular, the increase in construction activity from its low base should generate jobs in that sector while the general increase in demand should boost employment in the retail sector and in the accommodation and food services sector.”

In terms of earnings, the economic thinktank said pressure for wage growth would accelerate as the unemployment rate continued to fall and the economy approached “potential output”.

It said: “On the other hand, the absence of inflationary pressures will dampen growth in average hourly earnings across the economy. Even so, growth in average hourly earnings should be close to 2% in 2016 and then somewhat faster 2.2% in 2017.”

NERI was cautiously optimistic about theeconomy over the next two years. It projects that, while impressive growth figures of 2015 (7.8%) are unlikely to be replicated, real GDP will grow by close to 4.4% in 2016 and by close to 3.5% in 2017. “The impact of lower oil prices on real disposable incomes and investment are already factored into the 2015 output figures, and oil prices are, on balance, expected to increase in 2016. In addition, the euro is likely to be somewhat stronger against UK Sterling in 2016, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. This will weigh on net exports,” it said.

NERI also said an important caveat to projections here is that Ireland’s is a small open economy with a large financial sector and a large multinational sector: “The behaviour of a few large multinationals can have an outsize effect on macroeconomic aggregates. As a consequence, real GDP growth tends to be very volatile from year-to-year. Even so, we anticipate that real growth will remain strong in 2016 and in 2017, albeit declining year-on-year.”