Ireland expected to miss 2020 EU targets on emissions
Its EU target for 2020 is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the non-emissions trading scheme (non-ETS) sector by 20% on 2005 levels.
The non-ETS sector covers emissions from agriculture, transport, residential, commercial, non-energy intensive industry, and waste sectors.
Figures released by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) show Ireland’s non-ETS sector emissions are projected to be between 6% and 11% below 2005 levels by 2020, compared to the 2020 target of 20%.
As a result, the country is “unlikely to meet 2020 EU greenhouse gas emission targets”.
The agency noted that although Ireland has overachieved in terms of annual obligations in the early years of the compliance period (2013-20), it will not be sufficient to meet the compliance obligations.
As a result, Ireland is expected to breach annual obligation targets in 2016 or 2017, depending on the level of implementation of emission reduction policies and measures.
The EPA also said that, even with the full implementation of policies and measures out to 2020, these will not be enough for the country to meet the 2020 targets.
Projected increased emissions from the agriculture sector — impacted by the Food Wise 2025 Strategy — and growing transport sector emissions, dominate the projected emissions trend.
Agriculture and transport are projected to account for 76% of Ireland’s non-ETS sector emissions in 2020.
For the period 2014-20, agriculture emissions are projected to increase by around 6% to 7%.
Transport emissions, meanwhile, are also likely to show strong growth over the period to 2020 with a 10% to 16% increase on 2014 levels.
The EPA director general, Laura Burke, said a balance must be struck between a focus on economic growth and reducing emissions.
“The adoption of the Paris Agreement on climate change in December provides an ambitious, legally binding framework for global action on climate change,” said Ms Burke.
“In addition Ireland has taken a national policy position that commits us to reducing our carbon emissions by 80% in 2050 on 1990 levels across the electricity generation, built environment and transport sectors while achieving carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land use sectors.”
New obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for 2021-30 are being negotiated this year at EU level.
The further away Ireland is from the 20% reduction target in 2020, the more difficult it will be to hit compliance targets for the following decade.
Ms Burke said that, based on the current projections, the country faces “considerable challenges to become a low-carbon economy”.
“Ireland must follow a pathway to decarbonising energy, transport, and heating.
“We must break our dependence on fossil energy infrastructures.”
He continued: “In addition the agriculture, forestry, and land-use sectors should achieve effective greenhouse gas emissions neutrality by 2050.”
