Unemployment rising ‘ominously close’ to 15%

The number of people claiming the dole increased by more than 19,000 between May and June.

However, there were still almost 6,000 fewer people on the Live Register last month than in June 2011.

The monthly increase in people signing on the register was 2,700 when adjusted for “seasonal” factors, according to the CSO.

It said the standardised unemployment rate had risen to 14.9% in June compared to 14.7% in May. That was the third monthly increase in a row.

David McNamara of Davy Research said the summer months always brought a sharp spike in the unadjusted Live Register numbers as people such as temporary teachers are laid off.

“However, accounting for these factors, the seasonally adjusted increase of 2,700 is still the largest monthly upturn since Sept 2010.”

Nevertheless, he said the Live Register had stabilised over the first half of 2012, with the seasonally adjusted total falling from 442,100 to 440,600.

“However, the risks are firmly to the downside in H2 [second half of 2012] as public sector job losses and the euro area recession weigh on job growth. Despite the stabilisation in H1, we still expect unemployment to increase overall in 2012.”

The number of long-term claimants in June was 199,249, an increase of 12,606 on the previous year.

Siptu president Jack O’Connor said the latest figures showed unemployment was moving “ominously closer” to 15% of a declining workforce and pointed to the urgency of pressing ahead with “an imaginative stimulus plan funded by off balance sheet investment in infrastructure”.

Mark Fielding, the Isme chief executive, said that unless significant changes were made to the welfare system, many of the long-term unemployed would simply remain on the dole.

“The Government’s plan for jobs is a shambles as the conflicting camps within Cabinet propose polar opposite strategies, increasing economic uncertainty, consumer confusion and fear of investment. How can we have two senior ministers simultaneously propounding jobs growth and jobs tax, at a time when ‘joined-up thinking’ is required?”

Avine McNally of the Small Firms Association said the figures were disappointing, but not surprising: “The Government must provide greater certainty to consumers and the business community; stimulate the domestic economy and prioritise business costs. Only when businesses feel more confident will we start to see businesses invest, grow and create employment.”