Swine flu may infect more than one million Irish

MORE than one million Irish people could become infected with swine flu over the coming months, Ireland’s chief medical officer has warned.

Speaking to the Irish Examiner after a letter was sent to all GPs informing them of new measures to tackle a surge in infections, Department of Health chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan said the high-level figure was closer to becoming a reality.

While the impact of the virus in Ireland to date has been mild, evidence from previous worldwide pandemics indicates that between 20% and 40% of the population will become infected with the virus, Dr Holohan said.

The department has put a conservative “attack rate” estimate of 25% on the number of infections in this country.

However, this figure still means that one in every four people will be hit with the virus over the coming months – with up to 30,000 cases of the potentially deadly infection expected to be serious.

“The virus exhibits some worrying behaviours which we do not fully understand as of yet,” read the letter to all GPs, seen by the Irish Examiner.

“It also has the potential to become more virulent. Even if it does not, an infection rate in our population of 25%, albeit mostly mild cases, will generate sufficient morbidity to place significant strain on family doctors, hospitals, ventilation equipment and intensive care facilities,” it added.

While no deaths and just a small number of hospitalisations involving swine flu have been recorded since the first Irish case 11 weeks ago, Dr Holohan added that Ireland is effectively just four weeks behind the infection trend in Britain – where 16 people have died.

This figure was downscaled from 17 yesterday by health authorities in Britain after it emerged that the GP who had been infected with the virus, Dr Michael Day, did not die as a direct result of the infection.

News of the projected future swine flu caseload comes after the Department of Health’s latest bulletin said 11 more infections of the worldwide virus have been confirmed in Ireland since Monday evening, bringing the total to 144 with 10 in-country transmissions.

The surge in Irish cases, which has seen more than 100 infections in the past fortnight, has been mirrored internationally, with the World Health Organisation (WHO) yesterday restating that the virus was “unstoppable” as it gave the go-ahead to manufacture vaccines against the present pandemic strain.

While physicians will receive the vaccine first, WHO director of the initiative for vaccine research Dr Marie-Paule Kieny said every country will have to choose who else will be given priority.