FG hoping to avoid a Susan Boyle slip-up

FOR all the giddiness in the Fine Gael camp, there has been only one constant in Dublin South since it was constituted in 1981 – a Brennan seat.

And since the death of the well-regarded minister, Seamus, Fianna Fáil would love to see that constant remain in place with the election of his son, Shay.

The party’s problem is obvious. Polls, pundits and punters all believe the by-election seat is waiting for George Lee who is running under the Fine Gael banner.

Such is the universal sense of fait accompli for RTÉ’s former economics editor it would allow Fianna Fáil to disguise widespread disaster in the local elections if Lee was sent back to Montrose and his scalp bolstered the Government’s Dáil majority.

Implausible but not impossible.

As fans of Britain’s Got Talent learned on Saturday night, the public often likes to give general consensus a kick up the behind.

Notwithstanding the strengths of Fine Gael’s GLee Club, writing off Fianna Fáil on the strength of nationwide opinion polls is dangerous in Dublin South.

Like the other constituency where there is a Dáil by-election, Dublin Central, Fianna Fáil could have a sizeable chunk taken off its 2007 result (almost 42%) and still have Brennan leading after the first count.

Transfers would be his problem if he does not get the quota.

Fine Gael increased its share of the vote by 7.4% between 2002 and 2007, at the expense of the Progressive Democrats, but it was still 15 points behind the Fianna Fáil ticket of Tom Kitt and Seamus Brennan.

Shay was a last-minute addition to this race and, bar helping his father in his constituency office, had not been active in politics. But his sister Aoife is campaigning for a council seat, so Shay got behind the wheel of an electoral machine already revving nicely.

Apart from Fianna Fáil’s own tally, there is the destiny of Liz O’Donnell’s 6% share from 2007, as the PDs are not around to run this time. Her Green and Fine Gael-friendly transfers in 2007 suggest Lee will benefit.

And what of the 11% of voters who gave a first-preference nod to Green Party minister Eamon Ryan in 2007? The Green Party has been strong in the area and the South Dublin County Council side of the constituency benefited from a very able councillor Tony McDermott for the last five years.

He has now opted to contest the city council and will remain a future prospect in Dublin South Central. So instead the party will run Elizabeth Davidson, a weak alternative based on her performances in neighbouring Tallaght in previous elections.

It all means the votes of Fianna Fáil’s coalition partners, the defunct PDs and the off-colour Greens, will decide whether Fine Gael will be able to boast three of the five seats in the constituency after this weekend.

Dublin South is an affluent area and its voters more settled than in other parts of the city. Property prices were outrageous during the boom and many of the younger professionals are in precarious work situations. It is poorly served by public transport and has had the fiasco of bus lanes getting built only for the routes to be cut.

There is no single overriding local issue to drag protesters to the polls. But with the economy in the state it is in, it is questionable whether voters need an additional reason to march to the ballot box.

In this respect Met Éireann could deliver very good news for Fine Gael and Labour if it announces the current heat wave will deliver a long and bright Friday evening to encourage less enthusiastic residents to come out.

Fine Gael believes it will be a bumper turnout and, if it is, then in all likelihood RTÉ will not have to take Lee back onto its troubled payroll bill.

The battle which has developed along traditional Civil War lines is particularly galling for the Labour Party.

Its candidate Senator Alex White was preparing to make the short journey down the corridors of Leinster House to the Dáil until Lee and Brennan were nominated on the same night.

The constituency is a bit of an embarrassment for Labour and it has never managed to stay clued into the psyche of its electorate.

In 2007 the party had a two-candidate strategy with White splitting the area with Aidan Culhane in the east.

However, it backfired when both polled similarly and were beached without the ability to manipulate the transfers to stay in the race.

White was duly identified as the first-choice candidate for the future, was moved to the Seanad and used his contacts from a past life in broadcasting to build a prominent profile.

The producer turned barrister turned politician was the clear front-runner in the by-election contest for months and had Labour licking its lips for another Eithne FitzGerald moment.

In 1992 deserting Fianna Fáil voters gave her the most spectacular win of the general election.

But her failure to retain her seat at the next election said everything about the party’s problems along the leafy suburbs.

Sinn Féin and Independents are unlikely to impact on the fate of the three main players.

On this basis, if White is to drop out, his transfers would send either Lee or Brennan over the line.

If Susan Boyle was distraught to lose out in the weekend’s talent contest, it will be nothing compared to Fine Gael if its much envied candidate is not elected.