Poll finds main parties could lose Euro seats

BOTH main parties are in danger of losing a seat in the Euro polls as Labour is set for a surge, it emerged last night.

Fianna Fáil looks like losing its Dublin MEP, but will take comfort from the lack of support for Libertas chief Declan Ganley in his North West base.

Kathy Sinnott, in the South, is under extreme pressure from Labour and Sinn Féin, according to the Irish Times/TNS MRBI snapshot survey.

Fianna Fáil’s Brian Crowley looks set to hold his South seat with 27% of first preferences, while Fine Gael’s Sean Kelly is next on 17%, leaving the battle for the third berth between a trio of candidates.

Labour’s Alan Kelly is sitting on 13%, with Ms Sinnott on 12%, the same as Sinn Féin’s Toiréasa Ferris. However, transfers could push Ms Sinnott over the line, as it did in 2004.

The Fianna Fáil MEP at risk is Eoin Ryan in Dublin, who could lose out to Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin in the battle for the last seat in the capital.

The opinion poll, conducted with mock ballot papers, shows Fine Gael’s Mairead McGuinness of Fine Gael the top vote-getter in the country on 33% of first preference choices in Ireland East.

Fine Gael’s Jim Higgins heads the field in the North West with 20%, closely followed by Pat “The Cope” Gallagher of Fianna Fáil on 19% and Independent, Marian Harkin, on 18%.

Sinn Féin candidate, Padraig MacLochlainn, is on 10%, followed by Mr Ganley on 9%.

The results clearly point to Mr Higgins, Mr Gallagher and Ms Harkin, being elected on June 5.

In Dublin, which has dropped an MEP to return just three representatives Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell is ahead with 26%, followed by Labour’s Proinsias De Rossa on 21% and Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald on 14%.

Fianna Fáil’s Eoin Ryan looks set to be booted out of Brussels on just 11%, followed by Independent ex-Green, Patricia McKenna, on 8%, Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party on 7%, Deirdre De Burca of the Greens on 6% and Eibhlin Byrne of Fianna Fáil on 5%.

Caroline Simons of Libertas is on just 1%, despite a major advertising campaign.

In the East constituency, Fine Gael’s second candidate John Paul Phelan, from Kilkenny, polled just 9%, making it hard for the party to keep its two seats, as Labour has surged into third place.

The possible success of Fianna Fáil TD Mr Gallagher in the North West – who was drafted in at the last minute to hold the seat for the party – could come back to haunt Brian Cowen as the Government will face a fierce battle to retain his Dáil seat in the by-election which would follow his transfer to the European parliament.