Ireland has spoken — but what did it say?

“WHAT do we want? We’re not really sure! When do we want it? Maybe later?”

That was the underlying message from Ireland’s no vote and one that makes Brian Cowen’s job of finding a way out of the crisis it induced all the harder.

Ireland has spoken, but unfortunately for the Taoiseach, it will be very difficult to tell his European colleagues exactly what it has said.

With the condescending arch-haughtier of French President Nicholas Sarkozy’s dismissal of “the Irish incident” still ringing in his ears, where does Mr Cowen begin with his shopping list of things the disparate minorities who ganged up against Lisbon wanted gone?

Some voted to prevent legalised prostitution, conscription to an EU army and pro-choice abortion legislation through the back door. As none of these things was actually contained in the treaty, Mr Cowen can hardly ask for them to be dropped.

A greater number of farmers turned against it due to anger at the way they fear they are being sold out by EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson at the World Trade Organisation talks.

In reality the Lisbon Treaty has absolutely no bearing on that issue either.

Ireland’s veto on changes to direct taxation was already in the document, and it is unlikely some form of update on the Seville declaration on neutrality — such as secured after Nice 1 — would add much more to the text.

Even the seemingly straightforward matter of the commission being reduced from 27 to 18 members is a political minefield.

The change was agreed under the Nice treaty and all Lisbon did was extend the old system a further five years to 2014 and then introduce a rotational element so that all nations got a seat at the top table for 10 of every 15 years.

Now, the 2009 cut-off point may be re-imposed and rather than Ireland fighting for a permanent commissioner, it could be “punished” as one of the first to lose their berths.

The very issue of renegotiation is fraught with trouble as the EU took a decade to get the Lisbon text and no one wants to go through that again, especially as the matter is particularly embarrassing for this Government.

Ireland had to go into diplomatic overdrive during its last presidency of the EU to keep the Spanish on board with the reforms and it was Ireland that joined with the other 25 states in facing down an uppity Poland last year when

Warsaw demanded a better deal to reflect its 40 million strong population.

After denying favours to those two countries, how can Dublin ask for preferential treatment and influence for its population, which is just a tenth that of Poland or Spain?

The Franco-German engine of EU expansion has made it clear it does not intend to be derailed by Ireland.

Though Lisbon needs all 27 members to ratify it to become law, there are ways around such “technicalities” like the other 26 agreeing the key points in other forms. It would be messy and undignified, but it is certainly a runner.

European governments are so keen to see the Lisbon changes go through (though, of course, are too scared to put them to their own electorates) that it is even being considered to bolt on the changes in the Brussels voting qualified majority rules to the accession treaty for Croatia when it becomes the 28th member next year.

With just 15 days to go until he assumes the rotating presidency of the EU, Sarkozy has insisted Lisbon must go on “so that the Irish incident does not become a crisis”, however events could soon move further out of his control as the Czech Republic cools markedly towards the EU project, and along with notoriously independent minded Denmark, may yet hold its own referendum.

Intriguingly, the British have emerged as Ireland’s champion as they fear the creation of a two-speed Europe will inevitably see them relegated to the slow lane in the near future along with us. London has even warned against “bullying” the Irish.

French European Affairs Minister Jean-Pierre Jouyet was even more patronising than his boss when he said there was “no other solution” than for Ireland to hold a second vote.

The Irish may have swallowed the Father Ted-esque scenario of keeping voting until they got it right over Nice, but they show no mood for being pushed around in a similar fashion over Lisbon.

No wonder Mr Cowen has the air about him of a man who really does not know what is going to happen next. The Irish no vote, and the strategic errors he presided over in the campaign, leave him exposed as a rookie Taoiseach who is in office, but not really in power.