Little evidence of heave against Taoiseach

DID he jump or was he pushed?

It is the inevitable question that follows the resignation of a leader. Taoiseach Bertie Ahern is not gone yet, of course, but by naming his departure date yesterday, it raised instant speculation as to the reasons for his decision.

Mr Ahern himself insisted: “This is solely a personal decision.” He added that the decision had not been influenced by the “most recent events at the tribunal”.

This was a reference to the evidence of Gráinne Carruth, Mr Ahern’s former secretary, who accepted that she had exchanged sterling on his behalf and lodged it to one of his accounts. Mr Ahern, by contrast, had insisted these monies were the proceeds of his pay cheques.

The Carruth evidence was widely seen as cutting a huge hole in the Taoiseach’s credibility. More than ever, he was under pressure to give a satisfactory explanation for the monies he accepted or go.

He chose to go and the explanation will have to wait for his reappearance at the tribunal. But Mr Ahern insists the two events are not related. That is a hard line to accept, however.

For starters, Mr Ahern had insisted at all stages throughout his tribunal entanglement that he did not intend to step down until some time after the local and European elections of 2009. Yesterday, he conceded he had brought forward that departure date, and done so by more than a year. There must have been a catalyst for the change of heart, and it must have come recently. Ms Carruth’s damning evidence, which brought into question Mr Ahern’s own sworn testimony, would seem the most plausible explanation.

But if so, did it merely convince Mr Ahern to resign, or did it convince Fianna Fáil that the Taoiseach’s time was up?

There is little evidence to suggest this was a heave of any sort. Mr Ahern did hold a meeting with Tánaiste Brian Cowen last Thursday, at which it is believed the continuing controversy was discussed. Mr Ahern’s camp also freely admitted that he had held discussions about strategy with certain senior ministers over the weekend.

But those same ministers — practically every Fianna Fáil minister, in fact — vehemently defended the Taoiseach. Some may have avoided stating they believed Mr Ahern’s evidence, but they repeatedly insisted they had full confidence in him, and that he was going nowhere.

Instead, it appears, Mr Ahern himself simply bowed to the inevitable. The Carruth evidence had completely overshadowed the political agenda. It would have continued to do so in the absence of a resignation date or a satisfactory explanation from Mr Ahern.

In the end, the resignation date came first.