The $45,000 question: can Ahern last a third term?

THE ability of Bertie Ahern to last an unprecedented third full term as Taoiseach may very well hinge on what could now be termed “the $45,000 question”.

Having successfully overcome concerns about his personal finances in the court of public opinion — as evident by his party’s resounding success in last week’s general election — the issue nevertheless remains a possible stumbling block for the Fianna Fáil leader.

In private, potential coalition partners, including the Progressive Democrats and the Greens, still harbour a certain unease about the matter, although most representatives of the two parties who are publicly asked to comment declare they are happy to leave it to the tribunal to investigate.

No matter how much Mr Ahern would like to think he has dealt with the issue of payments he received while in public office, including his famous TV interview last October, extra details about his somewhat unusual financial arrangements continue to emerge which could still threaten his future as Taoiseach.

The restart of the Mahon Tribunal’s hearing into the Quarryvale II module last Monday, which had been deferred in order not to coincide with the election campaign, yet again highlighted possible inaccuracies in the Taoiseach’s account of his personal finances.

The central difficulty for Mr Ahern is his assertion made during the election campaign that a lodgement of £28,772.90 to an account at AIB in O’Connell Street, Dublin, by his then partner, Celia Larkin on December 5, 1994, was the proceeds of Stg£30,000 given to him by his friend, the Manchester-based businessman Michael Wall, a few days earlier.

The Taoiseach has consistently maintained that the money was for the purpose of buying and decorating a house at Beresford, Drumcondra. The property was being bought by Mr Wall, although there was an agreement between both men that it would be rented by Mr Ahern. The house was eventually bought by the Taoiseach in 1997.

The Fianna Fáil leader has explained that he was anxious to sort out his living arrangements at the time as he had (wrongly) expected to be appointed Taoiseach in December 1994 — following the collapse of the Albert Reynolds-led coalition government.

However, AIB documents uncovered by the tribunal’s legal team in the course of a lengthy investigation directly contradict the plausibility of the Taoiseach’s version of events.

Tribunal barrister Des O’Neill SC pointed out this week that the conversion of Stg£30,000 based on the prevailing exchange rate on the date in question would not match the sum of £28,772.90.

Bank records also show that less than £2,000 worth of sterling banknotes were actually exchanged in the AIB O’Connell Street branch on December 5, 1994 — the single most telling fact which undermines Mr Ahern’s explanation of the origin of the money.

Mr O’Neill went on to note that a customer who would have exchanged $45,000 on that date with the AIB would have received the exact sum credited to Ms Larkin’s account, if a bank official had charged the dollar exchange rate applicable to amounts less than £2,500 and deducted the bank’s £5 discretionary commission.

Mr O’Neill explained that this was plausible as banks use different exchange rates depending on the size and nature of the transaction, and he indicated that some other transactions by Mr Ahern, at the same bank, may have involved an what he termed “inappropriate” foreign exchange rates being likewise applied.

The mathematical probability of such a round figure as $45,000 equating to the Irish pound sum credited to the account by sheer coincidence is remote, as foreign exchange rates are calculated to at least four decimal places.

Although the bank’s records for non-sterling foreign currencies are less precise, they do show that the O’Connell Street branch took in foreign notes and coins to the value of almost £29,000 on the date in question — a total that certainly makes the possibility that such exchanges included a $45,000 transaction entirely plausible, despite the Taoiseach’s denials that he was ever associated with such a large lodgement in dollars.

In direct evidence this week, Tom Gilmartin, who made the initial allegations that Mr Ahern had received money from Cork-based property developer Owen O’Callaghan, also claimed that a close associate of the Taoiseach, Joe Burke, suggested he might give Mr Ahern £500,000 in return for the politician’s support of the developer’s project at Quarryvale.

All allegations that he received improper payments have been firmly rejected by Mr Ahern as well as by Mr O’Callaghan.

The fact that the controversial transactions relate to cash payments will make it difficult for the tribunal to make conclusive findings.

The difficulty for Mr Ahern and presumably his future partners in Government is that his explanation for the basis of the £28,772.90 lodgement to the AIB account simply does not add up.