Swing in sixteen key constituencies crucial
1. Dublin Central (4): Taoiseach Bertie Ahern’s constituency. If he doesn’t bring in a colleague, it will be bad for FF. If Mary Lou McDonald wins here, it may signal a good day for SF. A Joe Costello loss could mean a bad day for Labour. If Patricia McKenna scrapes home, expect a Green tide.
2. Dun Laoghaire (5): FG needs to win one or two here if it has any hope. If Fiona O’Malley loses, expect PD losses.
3. Dublin North (4): FG needs to win here, but a breakthrough could be on the cards for Clare Daly of the Socialist Party.
4. Cork South Central (5): If FF lose one and either FG or Lab gain one, the pendulum is swinging away from the government.
5. Mayo (5): Enda Kenny’s constituency. If FG want to reach the mid 50s, they will need three seats here. County’s loss to Galway last Sunday won’t help FG candidate and Mayo manager John O’Mahony.
6. Carlow-Kilkenny (5): Will tell us a lot. If the Greens are going to gain, Mary White must take a seat here. Will FF retain three? Or will FG/Lab take two.
7. Tipperary North (3): FG/Lab need to make gain here at the expense of FF. Michael Lowry is safe. If Seamus Healy in Tipp South manages to hold on, we may have more independents back than we think.
8. Donegal NE (3): One of about five constituencies where SF can make gains at expense of FF. FG also needs a win here.
9. Dublin South East (4): A volcanic constituency. This writer has got it in the neck for previously predicting a FF loss. Expect a fight to the death of epic proportions. If Lucinda Creighton wins for FG, it will be a good day for the party in Dublin.
10. Louth: If FG win two seats here at the expense of FF, party can expect seats in the mid 50s.
11. Cork East: A crucial constituency for Labour. One of their two candidates must win if the party isn’t going to become a sacrificial lamb to FG gains.
12. Galway West: A Noel Grealish loss and the PDs are down to very low single digits. Greens need to win here. So do FG.
13. Dublin South Central: If Tony McDermott wins here, the Greens will be approaching double figures. FF loss here to Labour or Greens will spell trouble.
14. Cavan-Monaghan: FF need to gain a seat here to compensate for at least six losses that are almost guaranteed before the counting even begins.
15. Cork North West (3): FF 2 FG 1 or FG 2 FF 1. Will tell us more than most other constituencies about the possible composition of the next Government.
16. Cork South West (3): Another key gain identified by FG. But Labour have high hopes for Michael McCarthy.
