Swing in sixteen key constituencies crucial

A SWING to or from a particular party in 16 bellwether constituencies will tell us a lot about the national trends, and could determine the overall shape of the 30th Dáil.

1. Dublin Central (4): Taoiseach Bertie Ahern’s constituency. If he doesn’t bring in a colleague, it will be bad for FF. If Mary Lou McDonald wins here, it may signal a good day for SF. A Joe Costello loss could mean a bad day for Labour. If Patricia McKenna scrapes home, expect a Green tide.

2. Dun Laoghaire (5): FG needs to win one or two here if it has any hope. If Fiona O’Malley loses, expect PD losses.