FG election strategy falls short in poll

Poll results

Martin Cullen (FF): 16% (18% in 2002).

Brian O’Shea (Lab): 14% (13% in 2002).

Ollie Wilkinson (FF): 13% (16% in 2002).

Brendan Kenneally (FF): 9% (12% in 2002).

David Cullinane (SF): 9% (6% in 2002).

Paudie Coffey (FG): 5% (first election).

Jim D’Arcy (FG): 5% (first election).

Brendan McCann (GP): 4% (3% in 2002).

John Halligan (WP): 3% (3% in 2002).

Mary Roche (Ind): 1% (first election).

Tom Martin (Ind): 1% (first election).

THERE has been harsh private criticism of Fine Gael’s election strategy in Waterford in the latest opinion poll which shows the party making gains but not enough to win a second seat.

The Waterford News & Star poll conducted by Red C shows that the party’s sole TD in the constituency John Deasy will top the poll with a 20% share of the vote, a 5% increase on his performance in 2002.

However, both his running mates, Paudie Coffey and Jim Darcy, will be disappointed with the findings, attracting 5% and 4% of support respectively.

And while Fianna Fáil’s overall share of support looks set to fall by 8%, the indications from the Red C poll is that the party will comfortably retain its two seats in the constituency.

City-based minister Martin Cullen’s support levels have dropped marginally since 2002 to 16%. The second FF deputy, Ollie Wilkinson’s showing of 13% will be enough for him to hold on ahead of party colleague Senator Brendan Kenneally, who is on 9%.

The fourth TD in Waterford, Labour veteran Brian O’Shea, looks like safely holding his seat — his support levels are solid at 14%.

Sinn Féin would have expected a better showing for its standard bearer David Cullinane. The party leadership had high hopes that the Waterford-city based candidate might sneak in for the last seat, but he would need to attract far more than 9% of first preferences.

Some local FG activists believe that the party’s strategy of running three candidates may cost it any chance of a second seat.

They believe that if only two candidates had run — John Deasy in Dungarvan and another in the city — they could have mounted a very strong challenge.

Privately, a small number of TDs in other constituencies have also expressed concern that the party is running too many candidates, and say it should follow a strategy of minimising its tickets as FF has since 1997.

Fine Gael is running three candidates in Clare, four in Galway East and three in Dun Laoghaire

However, the party spokesman said yesterday that they have picked candidates for very specific reasons. He said that the Waterford poll presented very good news for the party.

“What the poll is saying is that we are in a position to challenge for a second seat.”