Poll shows 41% Yes to Nice, 27% No

THE Nice Treaty will be endorsed the second time around, according to an opinion poll published yesterday showing 41% support for the Yes side.

Although 24% of the electorate is still undecided, a surge of Yes voters is good news for the Government ahead of Saturday’s vote.

The current 41% in favour compares to 27% opposed to the Nice Treaty.

The survey points to 8% of the electorate taking a firm decision not to vote.

However the survey, carried out on Thursday, reveals a sharp decline in popularity for the Government, particularly for the Taoiseach, since last May’s general election.

Satisfaction with the Government fell from 58% five months ago to a current 31% with Mr Ahern’s popularity plummeting from 68% to 43%, his lowest since being elected Taoiseach.

The IMS poll in the Sunday Independent was conducted before the potentially damaging revelations that one of the leading anti-Nice campaigners, Justin Barrett, had attended two overseas conferences organised by European neo-Nazis.

The timing of the poll did coincide with the two-day Dáil debate on the fall-out from the Flood Tribunal report.

The 14% lead held by the Yes side clearly suggests the electorate is distinguishing between international obligations on the one hand, and increasing domestic mistrust of the Government on the other.

The Flood Tribunal and other contentious issues, particularly the Government’s handling of the economy, were not high on the list of issues influencing voting intentions.

‘No’ voters remain obsessed with the neutrality issue, primarily, and also employment.

Ironically jobs are also the main concern of about two-thirds of those voting ‘Yes’.

The 18-24 age group is the only sector in which the No support (38%) has a firm majority over Yes voters (30%).

The sceptics in the 25-34 age group are the second highest No supporters at 29%.

Reflecting on the state of the political parties, the poll shows Fianna Fáil down four points to 39% since the last poll before the May election.

The PDs are at 3%, up one point, while the Green Party jumps two points to 6% with Sinn Fein registering 9%, up 3 points.

Labour remains unchanged at 10% as Fine Gael’s slump in support continues, down one point to 17%.

On party leaders, the poll shows Mary Harney’s satisfaction rating down seven points to 52% while Enda Kenny is at 31%, one point higher than predecessor Michael Noonan.

Gerry Adams is up three points to 52%, matching the Tánaiste as the most popular leaders, with Trevor Sargent increasing his personal rating by five points to 44%.