What you need to know about today’s election counts

THE counts today will throw up the usual winners and losers, but there are a few patterns to watch out for.

1. Turnout: The number of people who actually turn out is a real determining factor.

In particular, low numbers of young and working class people tend to suit the larger parties, who can always rely on their substantial elderly and middle class vote.

2. European Surprises: Dana stole the show in 1999 and there’s bound to be another shock.

Keep an eye on Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty in the North-West and Labour’s Ivana Bacik in Dublin to upset the odds. Independent Kathy Sinnott’s prospects have been well flagged but it will still be a real turn up if she wins a seat.

Fine Gael’s Mairéad McGuinness could pip her experienced running mate Avril Doyle in Leinster, while Fianna Fáil MEP Seán Ó Neachtáin may edge out Junior Minister Jim McDaid.

3. The Collins Dynasty: Aside from the Gerry Collins scrapping to hold on to his MEP seat in the South, arguably a more important result will be that of nephew Niall Collins in the Bruff electoral area of Limerick County Council.

With his tax problems, Limerick West TD Michael Collins is not expected to contest the next general election and who better to replace him than his bright young nephew?

4. Fine Gael in Dublin: While Gay Mitchell may well top the poll in the European elections in Dublin, the true measure of Fine Gael’s standing will come in the local elections.

The FG leadership will be hoping for solid performances from the young guns like the darling of party HQ, Lucinda Creighton, and the impressive Seán Dolphin.

5. Sinn Féin beyond the pale: It’s all well and good winning seats in disillusioned working class areas of Dublin, but the genuine test of Sinn Féin’s mettle will be their results in rural constituencies. If they can take seats off Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael here, then there really is no stopping Sinn Féin.

6. Drumcondra’s New Dynamo: Bertie Ahern’s selection of a running mate in the next general election will be strongly influenced by the next 48 hours.

Royston Brady’s performance, whether he wins of loses, puts him in the frame, while good results in the city’s north could help Niall Ring’s chances.

7. The Rabbitte Bounce: Pat Rabbitte needs to show his leadership is having some positive impact on Labour. These elections will be a signal of whether he can match oratorial style with ballot box substance.

8. PDs Punching: The opinion polls always underestimate the support of the Progressive Democrats. The party is always only one result away from extinction and now hopes to show consistent achievement.

9. Green Machine: Threatening for so long to make a breakthrough, if the Green Party don’t do it now then they may never do it.

10. Spoiled Votes: The trademark lack of engagement by MEPs, disillusionment with local politics and the confusion over the referendum could result in a significant proportion of spoiled votes.