Murderous start to the year

By Cormac O’Keeffe

The shocking toll is even more startling given that 2002 recorded the highest rate of homicides ie: murders and manslaughters since garda records began.

If this year continues on a similar pattern to last month, 2003 will top last year's estimated 62 homicides.

A number of factors are contributing to increasing lethal levels of violence:

A rise in gangland killings, with three last month compared to around 13 for the whole of last year

'Open warfare' between ruthless, and well-armed, crime families in Limerick

Separate gangland feuds in Dublin, which claimed the lives of two major criminals last month

Emergence of homicides among non-nationals, particularly within the Chinese community

Availability of a wide range of weapons, from handguns to machine guns

An increase in the number of paramilitaries who act as professional hitmen-for-hire for gangs

A new ruthless and fearless breed of young criminals, who are anything but afraid of the gardaí

The carrying and use of knives and bottles in alcohol-fuelled street violence and domestic rows

Dr Ian O'Donnell of the Institute of Criminology in University College Dublin, said it was difficult to place too much importance on homicide figures for one month alone. But he pointed out the high figures for

January follow the most "murderous" year on record.

"The shocking fact is that 2002 was the bloodiest year since gardaí first brought out an annual report in 1947. There were more instances of murder and manslaughter recorded last year than ever before."

There has been a big surge in homicides since the mid-1990s. Figures show the number of murders and manslaughters increased from 49 in 1996 to an estimated 62 last year a rise of 27%. That compares to 12 homicides in 1962 and 27 in 1982.

But this only tells part of the story. Homicide has become an increasingly urban phenomenon in recent years, with a massive upsurge in Dublin in particular.

Figures show the number of homicides in Dublin has increased from 16 in 2000, to 21 in 2001 and to 35 in 2002 an increase of almost 120% in the three years.

Last year, 56% of all the homicides in the State occurred in Dublin, compared to 36% in 2001 and 29% in 2000.

Limerick has traditionally recorded a disproportionately high numbers of homicides, with a murder rate of 5.42 per 1,000 of the population in 2001, compared to 1.76 for Dublin.

Limerick's toll has fluctuated from four in 2000, to a height of 10 in 2001, back down to six in 2002.

But cities are where the homicides are increasingly taking place. The five main cities accounted for 84% of homicides in 2002, compared to 55% in 2000.

"This is an urban problem, mainly Dublin, Limerick and Cork. You get the odd one in other parts of the country, and they often turn out to be domestics," said Dr O'Donnell.

"People get very frightened because they think the country is being swept in a tide of violence. The reality of it is different. Most counties ended 2002 without experiencing a killing."

He said the people most frightened, such as the elderly and people concerned about their children, are the very groups least at risk Last year, 85% of the victims were male. The average age of victims was 34.

Interestingly, an estimated 15% of homicide victims last year were non-nationals, including six Chinese. It is thought three of the six deaths were inter-Chinese, possibly the work of Chinese gangs.

Two of the other deaths were the result of vicious assaults by Irish youths in street attacks.

Gangland killings did not make up the bulk of homicides in 2002 just over 20% in all. Most were the result of late-night street attacks, many involving alcohol, or domestic rows.

Of all the homicides last year:

l 31 were stabbings or slashings

l 11 were shootings, in the vast majority gangland killings

l 16 were the result of beatings or assaults

Dr O'Donnell believes a number of key factors are causing an increase in lethal violence: "First is the increase in population. There has been a take-off in the number of homicides since the mid-1990s.

"Since then the population has increased by 8%. That's a very big increase, and that's concentrated in the cities. If you've got more people, you'll get more killings.

"A second key part of the increase is the massive increase in alcohol consumption. Again you can date that from the mid-1990s.

"Thirdly then, are the gangland killings, which have risen since decades ago. The key difference with gangland killings is they tend to remain unsolved, in contrast to, say, domestic murders."

While overall garda detection rates for homicides remains high 86% in 2001 prosecutions are less successful, particularly for gangland murders.

In 2001, of the 74 homicide offences (which includes murder threats and attempted murders), 64 were detected.

Some 38 prosecutions were initiated, accounting for 51% of all offences reported and 56% of those detected. Of the 38 cases, 22 were still pending in the district court.

Dr O'Donnell said part of the reason for the increase in gangland murders revolves around drugs.

"The drug trade is attractive to youngsters because there is huge financial awards there, as well as massive risks. Conflicts over territory and money tend to get resolved through violence."

This is done through guns. Garda figures show there were 179 serious firearms offences in 2000. This increased to 448 in 2001.

An inspector leading a recent shooting investigation said: "There's no shortage of guns. We seem to have a certain group of young people who've no fear of using them, or the consequences of using them, or getting heat from the gardaí."

Despite the surge in homicides, Dr O'Donnell said Ireland remains below the EU average with 13.7 murders per million of the population, compared to the EU average of 17. But these are figures for 1998-2000, he added.

"If we had comparative figures for say 2000-2002, we'd be closer to the EU average. If you took Dublin alone, it would be closer still. We are definitely catching up."