Heatwave in Europe 'a brutal reminder' of climate crisis as UN warns of record-breaking hot year by 2030

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are continuing to rise, trapping more heat and driving more extreme weather, including the record-breaking conditions experienced in Ireland and across Europe this week.

Global heating is already estimated to be taking one life every minute, with the toll likely to rise unless emissions fall rapidly.

The report, produced for the WMO by the UK Met Office, predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest ever recorded. There is a 75% chance the average temperature for the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will be more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial average.

Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, said: “The latest heatwave in Europe is a brutal reminder of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis, both human and economic. Many other parts of the world are also getting hit hard, such as India and other parts of Asia.

Protecting human lives, businesses and economies from extreme heat and the many other soaring costs of climate change is core business for every nation, and it starts with kicking the fossil fuel addiction much faster.

Scientists have repeatedly warned warming of more than 1.5C risks unleashing more severe heatwaves, droughts, storms and floods, and makes it harder for communities to adapt. However, every fraction of a degree of warming avoided reduces damage.

The Paris agreement goal of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels is assessed over a 20-year period, but is now unlikely to be met. The weaker 2C target remains within reach if urgent action is taken. The WMO report found a less than 1% chance that any single year from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 2C above the pre-industrial average.

Global temperatures are expected to be boosted by El Niño, the natural and cyclical weather pattern now expected by the end of the year. The latest forecast from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is a 96% chance of an El Niño in December 2026 to February 2027. There is a 35% chance of a super El Niño.

El Niño events form due to changes in winds in the Pacific Ocean, which cause heat stored in the ocean to be released into the atmosphere. 

Dr Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the WMO report, said: “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.” 

The new report predicts the next five winters in the Arctic are set to be 2.8C above recent averages, meaning the region is heating up more than three times faster than the global average.

The report also makes rainfall predictions, suggesting northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska and Siberia are likely to be wetter than usual from May to September over the next five years, while the Amazon is likely to be drier.

Here in Ireland, after the scorching temperatures of the last few days, Met Éireann says the weather will turn cooler and more unsettled for the bank holiday weekend.

Friday will be a largely dry day with sunny spells and just isolated light showers with highest temperatures of 17 to 23 degrees.

However, Saturday will see outbreaks of rain in the west which will spread through the morning and turn heavy at times in the afternoon with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will range 15-22 degrees.

Sunday and Monday will see a mix of cloud, sun and scattered showers, some heavy. Temperatures on both days will range 15-20C.

The Guardian