Bafta win puts Cillian Murphy in pole position for his first Oscar 

The Cork-born Oppenheimer star is tipped to shine still brighter in awards season: In four out of the last five years, the Best Actor Bafta winner went on to emerge victorious on Oscar night, writes Esther McCarthy

Cillian Murphy — the iconic Bafta logo behind him — arriving at the Royal Festival Hall in London on Sunday where his won the Bafta for Best Actor for 'Oppenheimer'. Picture: Ian West/PA

Cillian Murphy is now a clear favourite to win his first Oscar next month following his Best Actor award at Sunday night’s Baftas.

The Cork actor approaches the final weeks to Oscar night with the wind firmly behind him after winning his first Bafta for his work on Oppenheimer.

The Baftas are regarded as a strong indicator of where Oscar prospects lay — in four out of the last five years, the winner of the Best Actor Bafta went on to emerge victorious on Oscar night.

Baftas have a crucial role in awards season 

Murphy’s Bafta win comes at a crucial time in a lengthy awards season — when the potential for an Oscar win becomes almost as much about momentum as it does about the performance in the first place.

Every Bafta member gets to vote in a number of key categories including Best Actor, meaning that Murphy goes into the home straight knowing there is broad support for his performance following his victory in London. Many Bafta members are also eligible to vote for the Oscars.

With Bafta’s global voting membership comprising over 7,800, its massive electorate compares to Oscar’s 10,000-strong membership. 

The membership comprises creatives and film-industry practitioners working in the industry. Both bodies have greatly increased their memberships in recent years as part of a drive for greater diversity both in their industry and in the variety of projects that they vote for.

Bafta augurs well for Murphy's first Oscar

There is a wide crossover of voters across both the Baftas and the Oscars bodies, which bodes well for Murphy’s chances of winning his first-ever Academy Award on March 10.

Following his recent Golden Globes win, momentum for the Cork actor could build further still when the Screen Actors Guild Awards are held in Los Angeles next weekend. Voted on by members of the SAG-AFTRA acting unions, they are one of the last major awards ceremonies to take place before the Oscars.

This week, ballots for the latest and final round of Oscars voting open for members. From February 22-27, final casting of votes will take place to decide who will make film history on cinema’s greatest stage on March 10.

Awards momentum counts

This is where momentum again counts — the Cork actor will be fresh from his latest win and foremost on Academy voters’ minds as they make their final decisions.

Murphy has also been increasing his public profile in recent weeks, and it’s been interesting to note that much of his work in doing so has been rooted in his home country. Both an interview Murphy carried out for iconic US TV show 60 Minutes this weekend, and a profile with the actor for GQ, were carried out on home turf.

Still, nothing is confirmed until the winner’s name is called out on Oscar night in what is a very competitive year across all the major categories.

The competition 

Paul Giamatti, excellent as a teacher who undergoes a reckoning in Alexander Payne’s funny and moving The Holdovers, remains a narrow favourite with some critics and pundits.

The awards website Gold Derby, which collates the predictions of various critics and industry insiders, currently places Giamatti and Murphy as joint leads to win. There is a lot of support also for Bradley Cooper’s portrayal of Leonard Bernstein in Maestro. But the Bafta win solidifies Murphy’s position as the actor to beat.

This is a remarkable career time for Murphy, with strong reviews incoming for his next project, Small Things Like These, following its world premiere at Berlin Film Festival this week. 

The actor is also a producer on the forthcoming Irish-set drama, adapted from the much-loved novel by Claire Keegan. In the film, he plays a coal delivery man in 1980s Wexford who makes a startling discovery at the local convent.