Caitríona Redmond: Inflation might be dropping, but we are still feeling the pinch at the till
Caitríona Redmond examined receipts for the past few years. In 2013 it cost her €70 to feed a family of four, that has now doubled. Picture: Moya Nolan
The rate of grocery inflation has trended downward for the first time in two years, but we are not seeing the price we pay at the till decrease.
That's because a drop in inflation merely means grocery prices are continuing to climb, just at a slightly slower rate.
Kantar announced on Tuesday that there was a slight decrease in the rate of grocery inflation (0.2%).
This, coupled with recent supermarket announcements of price drops in dairy products, might give you the assumption that the cost of your weekly shop is about to return to pre-Ukraine war levels.
Those of a certain vintage will remember the butter vouchers which were part of the social welfare system right up until the end of the 1990s.
When said voucher system ended many households really felt the difference, and the cost of butter continues to attract great interest.
At the end of 2021, a pound of butter cost €2.19, and by the start of this month it had risen to €3.39.
Thanks to price cuts by major supermarkets in the past 48 hours, it has now reduced — to €2.99, still 80c more than just 16 months ago.
The term ‘decrease in grocery inflation’ means that prices are continuing upwards, just at a marginally slower rate compared to the previous month.
There is every chance that the recent dairy decreases from the ‘big five’ major supermarkets in Ireland will affect the grocery inflation rate next month.
You could say that the price increases of the past 18 months have given home bakers an exceptionally poor deal.
Half a dozen medium free-range eggs cost €1.59 at the beginning of last year but now cost €1.95.
Just three years ago a kilo of caster sugar cost 99c but today you can expect to pay €1.75.
Not all of the rising costs can be attributed to the war in Ukraine, although it may feel like the events of February 2022 were a watershed.
Tins and jars of tomatoes and peppers only started to increase last autumn.
Prior to this, I could buy a carton of tomato passata for 49c, today I can expect to pay 95c or more depending on the supermarket. That’s nearly double the price.
Ambient products such as tins and jars can be manufactured many months in advance of landing on supermarket shelves. The more expensive products slowly started to trickle in as stock started to rotate.
Early last year, while most of Ireland was oblivious to the impending crisis, Spanish and Portuguese producers had an extremely poor first harvest season thanks to catastrophic weather and flooding.
With both quality and quantity suffering a year ago, the knock-on effect can be seen on supermarket shelves today.
Iberian farmers have not fared much better in January/February 2023 which will likely lead to more prices rising in the medium term.
While researching this article I examined my shopping receipts as far back as 2013. Then, it cost me €70 per week to feed my family.
For the vast majority of us, if the prices continued to drop to the levels we experienced before the war in Ukraine it would give us some financial relief.
Unfortunately, though, the grocery costs we have been experiencing are caused by many factors, not just the conflict.
What we pay at the till may settle slightly but we will continue to feel the pinch for some time to come.
Caitríona Redmond has a weekly column in Weekend supplement
