Farm View: America’s beef warning should not be ignored

From a peak of nearly 80 million head in 2016, the EU's total herd dropped to roughly 72 million at the end of 2024, writes Stephen Cadogan

The price of hamburger beef put a dampener on July 4 celebrations in the US.

Minced beef prices hitting a record $8.62 per pound put a damper on July 4 barbecues across the USA last week.

The Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute estimated the cost of a summer barbecue for 10 people had risen ​by 2.4% from last year, to $161, mostly due to hamburger beef being 14% more expensive, year-on-year.

However, demand has remained generally strong for steaks and hamburgers, according to a Reuters news agency report that says sizzling beef prices will continue, because drought and wildfires have discouraged American ranchers from expanding their cattle supply, which is at ‌the lowest level in 75 years.

Could Europe’s beef industry go the same way?

And at what price point would EU consumers turn their back on beef, considering sales are already falling, although you can buy mince in Ireland for about 45% less than the American price?

Low incomes, unstable markets, ageing farmers, animal diseases, and new environmental policies have left the EU's cattle population slowly shrinking.

From a peak of nearly 80 million head in 2016, the total herd dropped to roughly 72 million at the end of 2024.

In the USA, droughts burned pasture lands and forced ranchers to sell off herds.

The cattle they imported from Mexico for fattening north of the border have not been available for more than a year, because of the spread of the flesh-eating new world screwworm parasite in Mexican herds.

And record beef prices are not tempting many American ranchers to rebuild herds because the continuing droughts make feeding too expensive.

If and when they decide to retain extra heifers for breeding, it will take at least two ​years before the country’s supply of home-grown beef recovers.

Will American consumers wait? Right now, according to the Reuters report, they can get two pounds of chicken breasts for $8.06, three pounds ​of pork chops for $14.79, or two pounds of minced beef for $14.06.

If American consumers ignore the price rises and stay loyal to beef, the meat they buy may well have come from Argentina, after president Donald Trump encouraged low-tariff imports from South America, in order to cool food price inflation.

That has angered American ranchers, and may lead them to delay herd rebuilding longer.

Trump also directed the Department of Justice to investigate if American meat processors were colluding to raise prices.

Across the EU, beef production is forecast to shrink by about 4% this year, according to the latest analysis by the European Commission. This follows a similar decline in 2025.

Like their American counterparts, EU beef farmers may not have much incentive to increase production, because free trade agreements will allow more and more beef imports into Europe. 

The EU-27 member states are expected to increase beef imports from around the world 10% this year, following an 18% increase in 2025. The Mercosur trade agreement will boost imports each year.

Meanwhile, the UK (which takes up to 50% of Ireland’s beef), is taking advantage of its new free trade agreements to bring in increasing tonnages from Australia and New Zealand.