Kieran Coughlan: Cyber trucks and gas prices - what does 2025 have in store for farm finances?
Could 2025 be the year we see a Cybertruck parked up at the mart?
I remember when I was young, Old Moore’s almanac was a key feature of the Christmas reading list as much as the RTÉ guide was at time.
I’m not sure when exactly, but both dropped favour in our house, probably with the advent of Accuweather and other online sources of information. Both, of course, are still available, and I’m operating in ignorance for the remainder of this column as to what Old Moore’s predictions are for agriculture.
From my perspective, though, 2025 will bring about some changes that we can predict with some certainty and some with lesser confidence. On the slurry front, farmers will be pleased to learn of a new TAMS grant for slurry and wastewater storage but will be disappointed by the rules surrounding the same and the reference costings, like almost every other TAMS the application won't have kept up to pace with the reality on the ground.
Farmers' interest in the derogation will increase as the year proceeds, especially as our current derogation is set to end this year; frustration and stress will grow, feeding into the hype on land prices and land rental prices as farmers battle it out to secure land.
Land rents will touch €500/ac for rental lands forming part of a dairy grazing block, and €20,000 per acre will be the new norm for good land. Interest in Irish farms will grow from other countries as farmers are squeezed out via environmental regulations.
Fertiliser prices are likely to elevate as importers and manufacturers blame restrictions on gas supplies from Russia for rising input costs.Â
Milk prices will remain high for the spring, but invariably, prices will moderate when a glut of production comes onstream in early summer. The numbers exiting dairy farming will continue to outpace those entering dairying as bank stress tests, higher entry costs and uncertainty on the future of the Nitrates Derogation weigh down the opportunities for entry.
The avian influenza variant affecting bovine, which is affecting US herds, may appear on European farms, and hopefully, significant efforts will be made to stomp it out.
Land prices are likely to remain strong due to a buoyant economy, decent rents, a host of land uses, and a rush of money coming from development land sales fueled by the continuing strong housing demand. Farmer frustration at the lack of availability of land and high land rents will grow.
The Government will row back on the changes to Agricultural Relief and will instead try to impose a financial cap on Agricultural Relief. The Department of Agriculture will face increased pressure from both farmers and their EU overseers in relation to the lack of progress on TB eradication; pressure for a vaccination program will increase.
Tillage farmers will benefit from higher grain prices as a rise in fertiliser prices adds to fears of reduced production. Overall farm margins increase in 2025 above 2024 levels, and a levelling off and even drop in prices arrives at last for farm machinery prices as reduced sales force manufacturers to address their marketing strategies.
ECB interest rates drop in Europe as fears of a recession grow and stimulus packages are announced at EU and national level.
On the motoring side, farmers will be amused to see a Cybertruck parked up outside a cattle mart, and it will be the talk of the town.
There will be greater interest by farmers in 2025 both in solar PV and Anaerobic Digestion as increased gas prices begin to feed into electricity prices.
Now, if I were you, I’d take all of the above with a pinch of salt, and as one wise man said to me, I only waste my energy on matters within my own control. On that note, wishing you the best for 2025.
