Almost quarter of a million Irish people still jobless by end of 2021, says ESRI

Vaccine rollout, combined with households splurging billions in unspent cash saved during the pandemic, will help economic fightback but will not be enough to stave off 10% unemployment by the end of 2021, ESRI predicts 

Getting back to February's pre-pandemic unemployment level of below 5% will take two or three years, Prof Kieran McQuinn said - with the caveat that this prediction is on the optimistic side. Picture: Larry Cummins

Almost 250,000 people will still be without jobs at the end of next year, even with a strong economic bounce and vaccines arriving en masse, one of the country's leading think tanks has warned.

The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) forecasts a muscular economic fightback as vaccine rollout combines with households splurging billions in unspent cash saved during the Covid-19 pandemic, but predicted it would not be enough to stave off 10% unemployment by the end of 2021.

Getting back to February's pre-pandemic unemployment level of below 5% will take two or three years, Prof Kieran McQuinn said - with the caveat that this prediction is on the optimistic side.

The forecasts come as Taoiseach Micheál Martin urged people to overcome the immediate Covid-19 hazard by adhering to social distancing measures and precautions, lest the Republic ends up in a similar situation to the North, where hospitals were overwhelmed on Tuesday.

There were 431 new cases in the Republic and six deaths reported yesterday, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) said, while 510 new cases and eight deaths were reported in Northern Ireland. Border counties are showing higher rates of Covid than elsewhere in the Republic, with 53 of the new cases in Donegal, 25 in Cavan and 24 in Louth. 

Hospitals in the North have come under increasing strain as pressure mounts on its health system, with patients being treated in ambulances queuing outside packed emergency departments.

The forecasts come as Taoiseach Micheál Martin urged people to overcome the immediate Covid-19 hazard by adhering to social distancing measures and precautions.

The North's failure to drive down numbers was “very, very worrying”, Mr Martin said, as the region's hospital capacity surged past 100%.

"We are now moving into a situation after Friday where people will be allowed go home. People will want to meet their grandparents and their parents. 

"To enable us to do that safely, all of our behaviour from now on matters. Every contact matters... We have a strong testing capacity but we must be very vigilant now. 

"But what we are witnessing in Northern Ireland could happen here if we allow things to go out of control, which we are not going to do," Mr Martin said.

There were more than 3,000 new cases in Northern Ireland in the last week.

Antrim Area Hospital saw 17 ambulances queued up outside on Tuesday, and its medical director did not rule out such a situation occurring again.

Dr Seamus O’Reilly said: "I’ve done 20-plus years in emergency medicine, and I have never seen the situation where we had to nurse and medically treat patients in the back of ambulances. That was a first.”

Plans for mass vaccination in the Republic are gathering pace, with up to 15 centres under consideration by the HSE to facilitate the rollout.

Brian MacCraith told the Oireachtas committee on health that the challenge of implementing the vaccine is "unparalleled here and around the world". Picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins

The Government's taskforce on Covid-19 vaccination has been in discussions with a number of third-level institutions about using their facilities for the rollout, its chair said.

Brian MacCraith told the Oireachtas committee on health that the challenge of implementing the vaccine is "unparalleled here and around the world".

He said: "At least 15 such mass-vaccination centres are under consideration by the team in the HSE at the moment. The exact details of how many staff will be required by a vaccination centre is still being worked through."

He said he had held discussions with third-level institutions including the University of Limerick and University College Cork about using their facilities for vaccinations.

Mr MacCraith said it would be difficult to give timelines on how many people will be vaccinated at different stages of the coming year.

However, it is anticipated that up to 5,000 doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine will arrive in Ireland before the end of the month.

The mass vaccine rollout should not give rise to "premature complacency", deputy chief medical officer Ronan Glynn told the committee, saying it will be months before vaccination would make a significant dent in the virus' spread, adding Nphet's messaging would not change anytime soon.