China's crop yields face slump under climate change

Climate change could cause a dramatic slump in vital crop yields for future generations in China, government-published research said today.

A study on Chinese agriculture found the vast country’s rice production could drop by up to a fifth by 2080.

Yields of three staple crops, rice, wheat and maize, may fall by up to 37% over the coming century unless future levels of carbon emissions are curbed, the joint Chinese and British research said.

The £400,000 (€586,800) study, published by Environment Minister Elliot Morley, looked into the likely effects of climate change on Chinese agriculture.

It found that average temperatures across China are expected to rise by between 3-4C by the end of the 21st century.

The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, found that there are likely to be more extreme weather events.

Researchers also analysed how socio-economic development could have a future impact on Chinese agriculture.

One of the key conclusions was that under a high economic growth scenario, the area of arable land would decline by around 13%.

Chinese and British scientists are now preparing for a second phase of the project, due to begin in 2005.

This will explore the effect of climate change on water availability and carbon dioxide fertilisation.