Analysts: Oil prices could go to $50

Analysts have forecast that oil prices could rise to $50 a barrel and that OPEC will not be able to meet fourth quarter demand.

Oil analyst Richard Griffiths, at Williams de Broe, said such a rise was feasible, but only if there was major disruption to oil supplies coupled with evidence of renewed demand strength.

Mr Griffiths said, however, that he did not believe oil prices would cool down significantly in the foreseeable future due to production capacity limits.

OPEC countries probably would not be able to increase output significantly without investment and time.

“I doubt there is a quick fix,” he said.

The $44.28 high achieved by US light crude today was the highest in 21 years of Nymex crude trading.

On London’s International Petroleum Exchange, September Brent crude futures rose 0.18 cents to $40.82 a barrel, a 14-year high.

A shortage of production capacity and fears of terrorist attacks in the US were also believed to be behind the record prices.

Yesterday, OPEC president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said the cartel could not immediately increase output to help bring prices down.

Meanwhile, Yukos remains mired in a year-long scandal over claims that it owes some $6.4m (€5.3m) in unpaid taxes dating back to 2000.

Russia’s tax ministry yesterday said it was considering an additional audit of the company for 2001.

Traders say they are awaiting the US Department of Energy’s weekly oil data report, due later today, for further clues on the short-term outlook.

American refineries are running near flat-out, with operating rates at a record 97% of capacity.