Economists say European rates will change before summer

Researchers have found economists believe interest rates in Europe will remain unchanged next week but there will be a cut in rates before June.

The AFX News and Agence France-Presse poll found of 36 economists polled, 35 expect the minimum rate to remain at 4.75%.

Only one of those surveyed, Natexis Banques Populaires economist Marc Touati, has forecast a cut to 4.50%.

However, a majority of those surveyed - 25 of the 36 - say they expect the ECB to reduce rates by the end of June.

Seventeen have predicted the rate cut will come in the second quarter, two have forecast a March-April easing move and five have forecast a March cut.

Of the remaining 11 participants, eight say they expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of the year, one forecast a third quarter rate reduction and two say a cut could come at any time in the second or third quarter.

By the end of the year, most economists - 23 of the 36 - expect the rate to be between 4.25 and 4.50%. Fourteen forecast an end-year rate of 4.25%, eight predict 4.50% and one offers a range of 4.25-4.50%.

Three say the rate will be at 4.00% at the end of the year and one has forecast 3.75%.